生育力检测在人口与健康调查中的应用。

Testing for fertility stalls in demographic and health surveys.

机构信息

Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, UMI Résiliences, Paris, France.

出版信息

Popul Health Metr. 2011 Dec 8;9(1):59. doi: 10.1186/1478-7954-9-59.

Abstract

This study compares two methods for testing fertility trends and fertility stalls using Demographic and Health Surveys data. The first method is based on linear regression and uses the equivalence of period and cohort estimates with the same cumulative fertility at age 40, the same number of births, and the same distribution of women by parity. The second method is based on logistic regression. It assumes that the age pattern of fertility is constant over short periods of time. Both methods were applied to fertility trends in several African countries (Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania, and Zambia). The two methods were found to predict similar values of cumulative fertility, to produce consistent slopes, to document fertility trends the same way, and to characterize fertility stalls with similar statistical evidence. They can also be used to refute apparent fertility stalls obtained when comparing two point estimates from two successive surveys.

摘要

本研究比较了两种使用人口与健康调查数据测试生育趋势和生育停滞的方法。第一种方法基于线性回归,使用在相同年龄 40 岁时的累积生育率、相同的生育数量和相同的生育模式分布的时期和队列估计的等效性。第二种方法基于逻辑回归。它假设在短时间内生育模式保持不变。这两种方法都应用于几个非洲国家(加纳、肯尼亚、马达加斯加、尼日利亚、卢旺达、塞内加尔、坦桑尼亚和赞比亚)的生育趋势。这两种方法都预测了相似的累积生育率值,产生了一致的斜率,以相同的方式记录了生育趋势,并使用相似的统计证据描述了生育停滞。它们还可用于反驳在比较两个连续调查的两个点估计值时得出的明显生育停滞。

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