Stud Fam Plann. 2019 Sep;50(3):257-278. doi: 10.1111/sifp.12098. Epub 2019 Aug 5.
Stalls in fertility decline were first identified in Ghana and Kenya in the early 2000s, and since then as many as 20 African countries have been classified in the "stall" category at some point. The countries and time periods in which they occurred are not well established, however, and whether stalls in sub-Saharan Africa are pervasive or not remains an open question. This article identifies where and when fertility stalls have occurred in sub-Saharan Africa. I combine a variety of data sources and methods to identify cases of fertility stalls strongly supported by the data. I find unambiguous support for stalls in two countries (Namibia and Zimbabwe), very strong support in three additional countries (Congo, Kenya, and Zambia), and fairly strong support in Cameroon, in the early 2000s. Stalls are possible in seven cases in six other countries (Côte d'Ivoire, Gabon, Madagascar, Nigeria, South Africa, and Tanzania), where evidence is moderate. Fertility stalls in sub-Saharan Africa are thus not widespread, but they are not exceptional either. Further research on the causes of these stalls is key to a better understanding of the future paths of fertility in sub-Saharan Africa.
生育率下降的停滞最早是在 21 世纪初的加纳和肯尼亚被发现的,从那时起,多达 20 个非洲国家在某个时候被归为“停滞”类别。然而,这些国家和出现停滞的时期并没有得到很好的确定,撒哈拉以南非洲地区是否普遍存在生育率下降的停滞仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。本文确定了撒哈拉以南非洲地区生育率下降停滞发生的时间和地点。我结合了各种数据源和方法,以确定数据强有力支持的生育率下降停滞案例。我发现,在两个国家(纳米比亚和津巴布韦)中,有明确的生育率下降停滞的证据;在另外三个国家(刚果民主共和国、肯尼亚和赞比亚)中,有非常强的证据支持;在 21 世纪初的喀麦隆,也有相当强的证据支持。在其他六个国家(科特迪瓦、加蓬、马达加斯加、尼日利亚、南非和坦桑尼亚)中,有七个案例存在生育率下降停滞的可能性,证据处于中等水平。因此,撒哈拉以南非洲地区的生育率下降停滞并不是普遍存在的,但也不是例外情况。进一步研究这些停滞的原因对于更好地理解撒哈拉以南非洲地区未来的生育率路径至关重要。
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