文献检索文档翻译深度研究
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件
邀请有礼套餐&价格历史记录

新学期,新优惠

限时优惠:9月1日-9月22日

30天高级会员仅需29元

1天体验卡首发特惠仅需5.99元

了解详情
不再提醒
插件&应用
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件浏览器插件Mac 客户端Windows 客户端微信小程序
高级版
套餐订阅购买积分包
AI 工具
文献检索文档翻译深度研究
关于我们
关于 Suppr公司介绍联系我们用户协议隐私条款
关注我们

Suppr 超能文献

核心技术专利:CN118964589B侵权必究
粤ICP备2023148730 号-1Suppr @ 2025

撒哈拉以南非洲生育率转变中的停滞:重新审视证据。

Stalls in Fertility Transitions in sub-Saharan Africa: Revisiting the Evidence.

出版信息

Stud Fam Plann. 2019 Sep;50(3):257-278. doi: 10.1111/sifp.12098. Epub 2019 Aug 5.


DOI:10.1111/sifp.12098
PMID:31385318
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6771655/
Abstract

Stalls in fertility decline were first identified in Ghana and Kenya in the early 2000s, and since then as many as 20 African countries have been classified in the "stall" category at some point. The countries and time periods in which they occurred are not well established, however, and whether stalls in sub-Saharan Africa are pervasive or not remains an open question. This article identifies where and when fertility stalls have occurred in sub-Saharan Africa. I combine a variety of data sources and methods to identify cases of fertility stalls strongly supported by the data. I find unambiguous support for stalls in two countries (Namibia and Zimbabwe), very strong support in three additional countries (Congo, Kenya, and Zambia), and fairly strong support in Cameroon, in the early 2000s. Stalls are possible in seven cases in six other countries (Côte d'Ivoire, Gabon, Madagascar, Nigeria, South Africa, and Tanzania), where evidence is moderate. Fertility stalls in sub-Saharan Africa are thus not widespread, but they are not exceptional either. Further research on the causes of these stalls is key to a better understanding of the future paths of fertility in sub-Saharan Africa.

摘要

生育率下降的停滞最早是在 21 世纪初的加纳和肯尼亚被发现的,从那时起,多达 20 个非洲国家在某个时候被归为“停滞”类别。然而,这些国家和出现停滞的时期并没有得到很好的确定,撒哈拉以南非洲地区是否普遍存在生育率下降的停滞仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。本文确定了撒哈拉以南非洲地区生育率下降停滞发生的时间和地点。我结合了各种数据源和方法,以确定数据强有力支持的生育率下降停滞案例。我发现,在两个国家(纳米比亚和津巴布韦)中,有明确的生育率下降停滞的证据;在另外三个国家(刚果民主共和国、肯尼亚和赞比亚)中,有非常强的证据支持;在 21 世纪初的喀麦隆,也有相当强的证据支持。在其他六个国家(科特迪瓦、加蓬、马达加斯加、尼日利亚、南非和坦桑尼亚)中,有七个案例存在生育率下降停滞的可能性,证据处于中等水平。因此,撒哈拉以南非洲地区的生育率下降停滞并不是普遍存在的,但也不是例外情况。进一步研究这些停滞的原因对于更好地理解撒哈拉以南非洲地区未来的生育率路径至关重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3b9b/6771655/b6058f5a3c4c/SIFP-50-257-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3b9b/6771655/08aa64923747/SIFP-50-257-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3b9b/6771655/9c2dd8a3309b/SIFP-50-257-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3b9b/6771655/81c073ef096b/SIFP-50-257-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3b9b/6771655/d65de8b7cabf/SIFP-50-257-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3b9b/6771655/1d7e223bd4d1/SIFP-50-257-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3b9b/6771655/b6058f5a3c4c/SIFP-50-257-g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3b9b/6771655/08aa64923747/SIFP-50-257-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3b9b/6771655/9c2dd8a3309b/SIFP-50-257-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3b9b/6771655/81c073ef096b/SIFP-50-257-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3b9b/6771655/d65de8b7cabf/SIFP-50-257-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3b9b/6771655/1d7e223bd4d1/SIFP-50-257-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3b9b/6771655/b6058f5a3c4c/SIFP-50-257-g006.jpg

相似文献

[1]
Stalls in Fertility Transitions in sub-Saharan Africa: Revisiting the Evidence.

Stud Fam Plann. 2019-8-5

[2]
Maternal education and marital fertility in four African countries.

Genus. 1993

[3]
Revisiting sub-Saharan African countries' drug problems: health, social, economic costs, and drug control policy.

Subst Use Misuse. 2002-2

[4]
Demographic and socioeconomic determinants of female rural to urban migration in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Int Migr Rev. 1993

[5]
Fertility and child mortality in Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana.

World Bank Econ Rev. 1996-1

[6]
Dietary Quality and Associated Factors among Women of Reproductive Age in Six Sub-Saharan African Countries.

Nutrients. 2024-4-10

[7]
Bibliometric trends of health economic evaluation in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Global Health. 2016-8-24

[8]
Trends in age at menarche and adult height in selected African countries (1950-1980).

Ann Hum Biol. 2020-2

[9]
Family planning increase in some African countries.

IPPF Med Bull. 1986-12

[10]
Demographic levels and trends in sub-Saharan Africa.

IPPF Med Bull. 1985-4

引用本文的文献

[1]
Forecasting Africa's fertility decline by female education groups.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2024-11-12

[2]
Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Lancet. 2024-5-18

[3]
Demographic change and urban health: Towards a novel agenda for delivering sustainable and healthy cities for all.

F1000Res. 2023-12-8

[4]
Contraceptive use by number of living children in Ghana: Evidence from the 2017 maternal health survey.

PLoS One. 2023

[5]
Dynamic stagnation: reasons for contraceptive non-use in context of fertility stall.

Gates Open Res. 2019-5-7

[6]
Traditional supports and contemporary disrupters of high fertility desires in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review.

Reprod Health. 2023-6-6

[7]
Trends and factors associated with declining lifetime fertility among married women in Kenya between 2003 and 2014: an analysis of Kenya demographic health surveys.

BMC Public Health. 2023-4-20

[8]
Trends in total fertility rate in Ghana by different inequality dimensions from 1993 to 2014.

BMC Womens Health. 2022-2-23

[9]
Urban Family Planning in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Critical Scoping Review.

Front Glob Womens Health. 2021-10-25

[10]
Human fertility in relation to education, economy, religion, contraception, and family planning programs.

BMC Public Health. 2020-2-22

本文引用的文献

[1]
Stalls in Africa's fertility decline partly result from disruptions in female education.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019-2-4

[2]
Fertility Transition: Is sub-Saharan Africa Different?

Popul Dev Rev. 2013-2

[3]
Testing for fertility stalls in demographic and health surveys.

Popul Health Metr. 2011-12-8

[4]
Investigating the association between HIV/AIDS and recent fertility patterns in Kenya.

Soc Sci Med. 2010-4-24

[5]
Stall in fertility decline in Eastern African countries: regional analysis of patterns, determinants and implications.

Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2009-10-27

[6]
Fertility transitions in developing countries: progress or stagnation?

Stud Fam Plann. 2008-6

[7]
Refining the criteria for stalled fertility declines: an application to rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, 1990-2005.

Stud Fam Plann. 2008-3

[8]
Unwanted fertility among the poor: an inequity?

Bull World Health Organ. 2007-2

[9]
The causes of stalling fertility transitions.

Stud Fam Plann. 2006-3

[10]
Stalls in fertility decline in Costa Rica, Korea, and Sri Lanka.

Popul Today. 1985

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索

推荐工具

医学文档翻译智能文献检索