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简单结构生活史中的世代分离:一个茶卷叶蛾的模型和 48 年的野外数据。

Generation separation in simple structured life cycles: models and 48 years of field data on a tea tortrix moth.

机构信息

Biodiversity Division, National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, 3-1-3 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8604, Japan.

出版信息

Am Nat. 2012 Jan;179(1):95-109. doi: 10.1086/663201. Epub 2011 Nov 30.

Abstract

Population cycles have fascinated ecologists since the early nineteenth century, and the dynamics of insect populations have been central to understanding the intrinsic and extrinsic biological processes responsible for these cycles. We analyzed an extraordinary long-term data set (every 5 days for 48 years) of a tea tortrix moth (Adoxophyes honmai) that exhibits two dominant cycles: an annual cycle with a conspicuous pattern of four or five single-generation cycles superimposed on it. General theory offers several candidate mechanisms for generation cycles. To evaluate these, we construct and parameterize a series of temperature-dependent, stage-structured models that include intraspecific competition, parasitism, mate-finding Allee effects, and adult senescence, all in the context of a seasonal environment. By comparing the observed dynamics with predictions from the models, we find that even weak larval competition in the presence of seasonal temperature forcing predicts the two cycles accurately. None of the other mechanisms predicts the dynamics. Detailed dissection of the results shows that a short reproductive life span and differential winter mortality among stages are the additional life-cycle characteristics that permit the sustained cycles. Our general modeling approach is applicable to a wide range of organisms with temperature-dependent life histories and is likely to prove particularly useful in temperate systems where insect pest outbreaks are both density and temperature dependent.

摘要

自 19 世纪初以来,种群周期一直令生态学家着迷,昆虫种群的动态一直是理解导致这些周期的内在和外在生物过程的核心。我们分析了一个非常长期的茶卷叶蛾(Adoxophyes honmai)数据集(48 年中每 5 天一次),该数据集显示出两个主要周期:一个年度周期,其上叠加有明显的四到五个单代周期模式。一般理论为世代周期提供了几种候选机制。为了评估这些机制,我们构建并参数化了一系列与温度相关的、具有阶段结构的模型,这些模型包括种内竞争、寄生、寻找配偶的阿利效应和成虫衰老,所有这些都在季节性环境中进行。通过将观察到的动态与模型的预测进行比较,我们发现,即使在季节性温度胁迫下存在微弱的幼虫竞争,也能准确地预测两个周期。其他机制都无法预测动态。对结果的详细剖析表明,较短的生殖寿命和不同阶段之间的冬季死亡率是允许持续周期的额外生命周期特征。我们的一般建模方法适用于具有温度依赖性生活史的广泛生物体,并且可能在昆虫害虫爆发既与密度又与温度相关的温带系统中特别有用。

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