Intracerebral hemorrhage in the very old: future demographic trends of an aging population.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

In most European societies and in the United States, the percentage of patients ≥80 years has been rising over the past century. The present study was conducted to observe this demographic change and its impact on patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH).

METHODS

We reviewed patients' data with the diagnosis of ICH from January 2007 to December 2009. All data were collected out of a prospective stroke registry covering the entire state of Hesse, Germany. Incidence rates and absolute numbers of patients with ICH for 2009 to 2050 were calculated.

RESULTS

Of 3448 patients, 34% had an age ≥80 years. Hospital mortality was 35.9% for patients ≥80 years and 20.0% for patients <80 years. Unfavorable outcome (modified Rankin Scale score >2) was more often found in patients ≥80 years compared with patients <80 years (84.9% versus 74.8%). By the year 2050, the proportion of all patients with ICH ≥80 years will be 2.5-fold higher than in 2009. The total number of ICH cases will increase approximately 35.2% assuming that ICH probability stays the same. The number of patients who die in the hospital will increase approximately 60.2%. The total number of patients with severe disability due to ICH will increase approximately 36.8%.

CONCLUSIONS

If current treatment strategies according to age remain unchanged, an increase of in-hospital mortality and a higher proportion of patients who need lifelong care after ICH can be expected in the coming decades.