Zhang Ying, Li Jun, Lin Wei, Qiang Sheng
Weed Research Laboratory, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2011 Nov;22(11):2970-6.
Erigeron philadelphicus, an alien weed originated from North America, has already invaded in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, and some other places in China, caused harm on local ecosystem and demonstrated huge potential invasiveness. By using MaxEnt model and geographic information system (GIS), this paper analyzed the environmental variables affecting the distribution of E. philadelphicus, and intuitively and quantitatively predicted its potential distribution regions in China. The prediction was verified by the ROC curve, and the results showed that E. philadelphicus had a wide potential distribution range, with the main suitable distribution area in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Henan, Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi. At present, the actual invasive range of E. philadelphicus was far narrower than its potential maximum invasive range, and likely to be continued to spread. The ROC curve test indicated that the prediction with MaxEnt model had a higher precision, and was credible. Air temperature and precipitation could be the main environmental variables affecting the potential distribution of E. philadelphicus. More attentions should be addressed to the harmfulness of the weed. To eradicate the existing E. philadelphicus populations and to strictly monitor the invasion of E. philadelphicus to its most suitable distribution area could be the effective measures to prevent and control the further invasion of the alien weed.
北美飞蓬是一种原产于北美的外来杂草，已入侵中国上海、江苏、安徽等地，对当地生态系统造成危害，并显示出巨大的潜在入侵性。本文利用最大熵（MaxEnt）模型和地理信息系统（GIS）分析了影响北美飞蓬分布的环境变量，并直观且定量地预测了其在中国的潜在分布区域。通过ROC曲线对预测结果进行验证，结果表明北美飞蓬具有广泛的潜在分布范围，主要适宜分布区在上海、江苏、浙江、安徽、河南、湖北、湖南和江西。目前，北美飞蓬的实际入侵范围远窄于其潜在最大入侵范围，且可能继续扩散。ROC曲线检验表明，MaxEnt模型的预测精度较高，结果可信。气温和降水可能是影响北美飞蓬潜在分布的主要环境变量。应更加关注该杂草的危害性。铲除现有的北美飞蓬种群并严格监测其向最适宜分布区的入侵，可能是防控这种外来杂草进一步入侵的有效措施。
