Hong Bo, Wang Ying-Lun, Zhao Hui-Yan
Shaanxi Institute of Zoology, Xi'an 710032, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2012 Apr;23(4):1123-7.
Eriosoma lanigerum (Hausmann) is an important quarantine insect of apple tree, and usually causes serious economic losses in apple production area every year. To predict the suitable distribution area of E. lanigerum and the environmental factors affecting the insect' s colonization and dispersal could provide references for the forecast of the insect's distribution area, the constitution of effective quarantine measures, and the control decisions. In this study, niche model MaxEnt and ArcGIS were applied to analyze and predict the suitable distribution area of E. lanigerum, ROC was used to evaluate the prediction model and the prediction results, and Jackknife analysis was made to analyze the most important environmental factors affecting the occurrence of E. lanigerum. The results showed that E. lanigerum had a wide distribution area in China, its suitable distribution index was the highest in Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shaanxi provinces, and the most important environmental factors affecting the occurrence of E. lanigerum were temperature-dependent factors.
苹果绵蚜（Eriosoma lanigerum (Hausmann)）是苹果树的一种重要检疫性害虫，每年通常会给苹果产区造成严重的经济损失。预测苹果绵蚜的适生分布区以及影响该害虫定殖和扩散的环境因子，可为预测其分布区域、制定有效的检疫措施以及防治决策提供参考。本研究应用生态位模型MaxEnt和ArcGIS分析预测苹果绵蚜的适生分布区，采用ROC评估预测模型和预测结果，并通过刀切法分析影响苹果绵蚜发生的最重要环境因子。结果表明，苹果绵蚜在中国分布范围较广，其适生分布指数在辽宁、山东、河南、河北、安徽、江苏和陕西等省份最高，影响苹果绵蚜发生的最重要环境因子是温度依赖型因子。
