Department of Psychology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 603 East Daniel Street, Champaign, IL 61820, USA.
J Anxiety Disord. 2012 Apr;26(3):425-9. doi: 10.1016/j.janxdis.2012.01.001. Epub 2012 Jan 14.
Individuals who are prone to worry tend to overestimate the likelihoods and costs of future undesirable outcomes. However, it is unclear whether these relations vary as a function of the timeframe of the event in question. In the present study, 342 undergraduate students completed a self-report measure of worry and rated the perceived probabilities and costs of 40 undesirable outcomes. Specifically, each participant estimated the probability that each of these outcomes would occur within three different timeframes: the next month, the next year, and the next 10 years. We found that the strength of the association between worry and probability estimates was strongest for the most proximal timeframe. Probability estimates were more strongly associated with worry for participants with elevated cost estimates, and this interactive effect was strongest for the most distal timeframe. Implications of these findings for understanding the etiology and treatment of excessive worry are discussed.
容易忧虑的个体往往会高估未来不良结果的可能性和代价。然而，这些关系是否会随着所讨论事件的时间框架而变化尚不清楚。在本研究中，342 名大学生完成了一份担忧自评量表，并对 40 种不良结果的感知可能性和代价进行了评分。具体来说，每位参与者估计了这些结果中每一个在三个不同时间框架内发生的概率：下个月、明年和未来 10 年。我们发现，担忧与概率估计之间的关联强度在最接近的时间框架内最强。对于成本估计较高的参与者，概率估计与担忧的相关性更强，而这种交互作用在最遥远的时间框架内最强。这些发现对理解过度担忧的病因和治疗具有启示意义。
