Department of Psychiatry, University of California, San Diego School of Medicine, La Jolla, California 92037, USA.
J Stud Alcohol Drugs. 2012 Mar;73(2):195-204. doi: 10.15288/jsad.2012.73.195.
This article presents the first direct comparison of level of response (LR)-based prospective models in two generations of the same families. To accomplish this, we describe results from the first prospective evaluation of potential mediators of how an earlier low LR to alcohol relates to adverse alcohol outcomes in offspring from the San Diego Prospective Study (SDPS).
To compare with data from probands in the SDPS, new data were gathered from 86 drinking offspring (age ~20 years) during the 25-year follow-up of these families. Consistent with the usual effect of a low LR, outcomes 5 years later for both generations focused on drinking quantities as well as alcohol problems during the follow-up. A structural equation model (SEM) was used to analyze the relationships among variables, and the models in proband and offspring generations were compared using direct observations of the model results and through invariance procedures.
In these drinking offspring, LR correlated with 5-year outcomes (r = .48, p < .001) and the SEM R² was .48, with good fit statistics. As predicted, the LR relationship to alcohol-related outcomes was both direct and partially mediated by heavier peer drinking, positive alcohol expectancies, and using alcohol to cope with stress. These results were similar to a previously published prospective model in SDPS probands, although path coefficients were generally higher in the younger group.
The LR-based model of heavier drinking operated similarly across generations, with some modest differences. These results indicate that the model may be meaningful in both younger and middle-age groups.
本文首次直接比较了两代同一家族中基于反应水平（LR）的前瞻性模型。为了实现这一目标，我们描述了对潜在中介因素的首次前瞻性评估结果，这些因素说明了早期低 LR 与圣地亚哥前瞻性研究（SDPS）中后代不良酒精结局之间的关系。
为了与 SDPS 先证者的数据进行比较，我们从这些家庭的 25 年随访中收集了 86 名饮酒后代（年龄约 20 岁）的新数据。与低 LR 的通常影响一致，两代人的 5 年后结果都集中在饮酒量和随访期间的酒精问题上。使用结构方程模型（SEM）来分析变量之间的关系，通过直接观察模型结果和不变性程序来比较先证者和后代两代的模型。
在这些饮酒后代中，LR 与 5 年的结果相关（r =.48，p <.001），SEM 的 R²为.48，具有良好的拟合统计数据。正如预期的那样，LR 与酒精相关结果的关系是直接的，部分通过更重的同伴饮酒、积极的酒精期望和使用酒精来应对压力来介导。这些结果与 SDPS 先证者中之前发表的前瞻性模型相似，尽管在年轻组中，路径系数通常更高。
基于 LR 的更大量饮酒模型在两代人中的运作方式相似，但存在一些细微差异。这些结果表明，该模型在年轻和中年人群中都有意义。
