[Estimation and projection on HIV/AIDS through application of Estimation and Projection Package and Spectrum models, in Taizhou prefecture, Zhejiang province].

OBJECTIVE

To apply Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum models for the estimation and projection on HIV/AIDS epidemics in areas with relatively low HIV/AIDS prevalence in China, and to explore the influences of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on the outputs of the models.

METHODS

Taizhou prefecture in Zhejiang province was selected as the study site. Social and demographic data as well as all the information on HIV/AIDS epidemics in Taizhou prefecture were collected, managed, input to EPP and Spectrum models to estimate and project the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Taizhou prefecture. Impact of ART on the HIV/AIDS epidemic was also assessed.

RESULTS

According to the estimates from both EPP and Spectrum model, the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Taizhou prefecture was at a relatively low level. HIV prevalence rates among men having sex with men (MSM) and injection drug users (IDU) were relatively high and rapidly increasing. It was estimated that 1773 (1384 - 2449) people were living with HIV in 2010 in Taizhou prefecture, with an overall HIV prevalence of 0.03% (0.02% - 0.04%). ART had reduced and would continue to reduce new HIV infections and AIDS deaths, but had no significant impact on the overall HIV prevalence and the numbers of people living with HIV and adults who were in need of ART.

CONCLUSION

EPP and Spectrum models seemed to be suitable and useful tools for estimation and projection on HIV/AIDS in Taizhou prefecture, and the results could provide reference for the further studies in other areas with a relatively low epidemic level of HIV/AIDS. ART appeared effective for HIV/AIDS prevention and control.