预测艾滋病的人口影响及需要治疗的人数：Spectrum预测软件包的更新
Projecting the demographic impact of AIDS and the number of people in need of treatment: updates to the Spectrum projection package.
作者信息
Stover J, Walker N, Grassly N C, Marston M
机构信息
Futures Group, 80 Glastonbury Boulevard, Glastonbury, CT 06033, USA.
出版信息
Sex Transm Infect. 2006 Jun;82 Suppl 3(Suppl 3):iii45-50. doi: 10.1136/sti.2006.020172.
BACKGROUND
In the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) approach to HIV and AIDS estimates, estimates of adult prevalence produced by the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) or the Workbook are transferred to Spectrum to estimate the consequences of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, including the number of people living with HIV by age and sex, new infections, AIDS deaths, AIDS orphans, treatment needs, and the impact of treatment on survival.
METHODS
The UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Models and Projections recommends updates to the methodology and assumptions based on the latest research findings and international policy and programme guidelines. The latest update to Spectrum has been used in the 2005 round of global estimates.
RESULTS
Several new features have been added to Spectrum in the past two years. New patterns of the age distribution of prevalence over time are based on the latest survey data. A more detailed treatment of mother to child transmission of HIV is now based on information about current breastfeeding practices, treatment options offered to prevent mother to child transmission (PMTCT), infant feeding options, and the percentage or number of pregnant women accessing PMTCT services. A new section on child survival includes the effects of cotrimoxazole and ART on child survival. Projections can now be calibrated with national survey data. A new set of outputs is provided for all adults over the age of 15 in addition to the traditional 15-49 age group. New outputs are now available to show plausibility bounds and regional estimates for key indicators.
CONCLUSIONS
The latest update to the Spectrum program is intended to incorporate the latest research findings and provide new outputs needed by national and international planners.
背景
在联合国艾滋病规划署（UNAIDS）对艾滋病毒和艾滋病的估计方法中，由估计与预测软件包（EPP）或工作簿得出的成人感染率估计值会被传输到Spectrum软件中，以估计艾滋病毒/艾滋病疫情的后果，包括按年龄和性别划分的艾滋病毒感染者人数、新感染病例、艾滋病死亡人数、艾滋病孤儿、治疗需求以及治疗对生存的影响。
方法
UNAIDS估计、模型与预测参考小组根据最新研究结果以及国际政策和项目指南，建议对方法和假设进行更新。Spectrum软件的最新更新已用于2005年的全球估计。
结果
在过去两年中，Spectrum软件增加了几个新功能。基于最新调查数据得出了随时间变化的感染率年龄分布新模式。现在，根据当前母乳喂养做法、为预防母婴传播（PMTCT）提供的治疗选择、婴儿喂养选择以及接受PMTCT服务的孕妇百分比或人数等信息，对艾滋病毒母婴传播进行了更详细的处理。关于儿童生存的新章节包括复方新诺明和抗逆转录病毒疗法对儿童生存的影响。现在可以用国家调查数据对预测进行校准。除了传统的15 - 49岁年龄组外，还为所有15岁以上的成年人提供了一组新的输出结果。现在有新的输出结果可显示关键指标的合理性界限和区域估计值。
结论
Spectrum软件的最新更新旨在纳入最新研究结果，并提供国家和国际规划者所需的新输出结果。
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