Department of Biology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599, USA.
Ecology. 2011 Dec;92(12):2214-21. doi: 10.1890/11-0066.1.
Thermal constraints on development are often invoked to predict insect distributions. These constraints tend to be characterized in species distribution models (SDMs) by calculating development time based on a constant lower development temperature (LDT). Here, we assessed whether species-specific estimates of LDT based on laboratory experiments can improve the ability of SDMs to predict the distribution shifts of six U.K. butterflies in response to recent climate warming. We find that species-specific and constant (5 degrees C) LDT degree-day models perform similarly at predicting distributions during the period of 1970-1982. However, when the models for the 1970-1982 period are projected to predict distributions in 1995-1999 and 2000-2004, species-specific LDT degree-day models modestly outperform constant LDT degree-day models. Our results suggest that, while including species-specific physiology in correlative models may enhance predictions of species' distribution responses to climate change, more detailed models may be needed to adequately account for interspecific physiological differences.
热限制通常被用来预测昆虫的分布。这些限制往往通过根据一个恒定的下限发育温度 (LDT) 来计算发育时间，从而在物种分布模型 (SDM) 中进行特征描述。在这里，我们评估了基于实验室实验的物种特异性 LDT 估计值是否可以提高 SDM 预测六种英国蝴蝶对最近气候变暖的分布转移的能力。我们发现，物种特异性和恒定 (5 摄氏度) 的 LDT 度日模型在预测 1970-1982 年期间的分布时表现相似。然而，当将 1970-1982 年期间的模型预测 1995-1999 年和 2000-2004 年的分布时，物种特异性 LDT 度日模型适度优于恒定 LDT 度日模型。我们的结果表明，虽然在相关模型中包含物种特异性生理学可能会增强对物种对气候变化的分布响应的预测，但可能需要更详细的模型来充分考虑种间生理差异。
