Deltares, MH, Delft, The Netherlands.
Ambio. 2012 Mar;41(2):180-92. doi: 10.1007/s13280-011-0193-x. Epub 2011 Oct 18.
Climate change and sea level rise urge low-lying countries to draft adaption policies. In this context, we assessed whether, to what extent and when the Netherlands' current flood risk management policy may require a revision. By applying scenarios on climate change and socio-economic development and performing flood simulations, we established the past and future changes in flood probabilities, exposure and consequences until about 2050. We also questioned whether the present policy may be extended much longer, applying the concept of 'policy tipping points'. Climate change was found to cause a significant increase of flood risk, but less than economic development does. We also established that the current flood risk management policy in the Netherlands can be continued for centuries when the sea level rise rate does not exceed 1.5 m per century. However, we also conclude that the present policy may not be the most attractive strategy, as it has some obvious flaws.
气候变化和海平面上升促使低海拔国家制定适应政策。在此背景下，我们评估了荷兰现行洪水风险管理政策是否需要修订，以及需要在多大程度上进行修订、何时进行修订。我们通过应用气候变化和社会经济发展情景并进行洪水模拟，确定了截至 2050 年前后洪水发生概率、暴露程度和后果的过去和未来变化。我们还通过应用“政策转折点”概念，探讨了现行政策是否可以延长使用。结果表明，气候变化会导致洪水风险显著增加，但增加幅度不及经济发展。我们还确定，当海平面上升速度不超过 1.5 米/世纪时，荷兰现行的洪水风险管理政策在未来几个世纪内仍可继续使用。然而，我们还得出结论，现行政策可能不是最具吸引力的策略，因为它存在一些明显的缺陷。
