Nicholas School of the Environment, Department of Biology, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.
Trends Ecol Evol. 2012 Apr;27(4):198-202. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2012.02.001. Epub 2012 Mar 6.
The Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity (UNTB), proposed as an alternative to niche theory, has been viewed as a theory that species coexist without niche differences, without fitness differences, or with equal probability of success. Support is claimed when models lacking species differences predict highly aggregated metrics, such as species abundance distributions (SADs) or species area distributions (SARs). Here, I summarize why UNTB generates confusion, and is not actually relevant to niche theory (i.e. an explanation for why and how many species coexist). Equal probability is not a theory, but lack of one; it does not include or exclude any process relevant to coexistence of competitors. Models lacking explicit species can make useful predictions, but this does not support neutral theory. I provide s suggestions that could help reduce confusion generated by the debate.
统一的生物多样性中性理论（UNTB）作为生态位理论的替代理论，被认为是一种在没有生态位差异、没有适应差异或成功概率相等的情况下物种共存的理论。当缺乏物种差异的模型预测出高度聚集的指标时，如物种丰度分布（SAD）或物种面积分布（SAR），就会声称得到支持。在这里，我总结了为什么 UNTB 会产生混淆，并且实际上与生态位理论无关（即解释为什么和有多少物种共存）。等概率不是一个理论，而是缺乏一个理论；它不包括或排除与竞争者共存相关的任何过程。缺乏明确物种的模型可以做出有用的预测，但这并不支持中性理论。我提供了一些建议，可以帮助减少辩论产生的混淆。
