Institut de Veille Sanitaire, 12 Rue du Val d'Osne, Saint Maurice 94415, France.
Int J Biometeorol. 2013 Jan;57(1):75-81. doi: 10.1007/s00484-012-0535-9. Epub 2012 Mar 9.
We propose a simple method to provide a rapid and robust estimate of the short-term impacts of heat waves on mortality, to be used for communication within a heat warning system. The excess mortality during a heat wave is defined as the difference between the observed mortality over the period and the observed mortality over the same period during the N preceding years. This method was tested on 19 French cities between 1973 and 2007. In six cities, we compared the excess mortality to that obtained using a modelling of the temperature-mortality relationship. There was a good agreement between the excess mortalities estimated by the simple indicator and by the models. Major differences were observed during the most extreme heat waves, in 1983 and 2003, and after the implementation of the heat prevention plan in 2006. Excluding these events, the mean difference between the estimates obtained by the two methods was of 13 deaths [1:45]. A comparison of mortality with the previous years provides a simple estimate of the mortality impact of heat waves. It can be used to provide early and reliable information to stakeholders of the heat prevention plan, and to select heat waves that should be further investigated.
我们提出了一种简单的方法，可以快速、稳健地估算热浪对死亡率的短期影响，以便在热浪预警系统内进行交流。热浪期间的超额死亡率定义为该期间观察到的死亡率与前 N 年同期观察到的死亡率之间的差值。该方法在 1973 年至 2007 年间在 19 个法国城市进行了测试。在六个城市中，我们将超额死亡率与使用温度-死亡率关系模型获得的超额死亡率进行了比较。简单指标和模型估算的超额死亡率之间存在良好的一致性。在 1983 年和 2003 年最极端的热浪期间以及 2006 年实施热浪预防计划后，观察到了较大差异。排除这些事件后，两种方法的估计值之间的平均差异为 13 人[1:45]。与前几年的死亡率进行比较，可以简单估算热浪对死亡率的影响。它可用于向热浪预防计划的利益相关者提供早期、可靠的信息，并选择应进一步调查的热浪。
