Poullis Michael, McShane James, Shaw Mathew, Woolley Steven, Shackcloth Michael, Page Richard, Mediratta Neeraj
Liverpool Heart and Chest Hospital, Liverpool, UK.
Interact Cardiovasc Thorac Surg. 2012 Jun;14(6):743-9. doi: 10.1093/icvts/ivr164. Epub 2012 Mar 14.
The tumour-node metastasis (TNM) classification system is anatomically based. We investigated whether the addition of simple physiological variables, age and body mass index (BMI), would affect survival curves, i.e. a composite anatomical and physiological staging system. We retrospectively analysed a prospectively validated thoracic surgery database (n = 1981). Cox multivariate analysis was performed to determine possible significant factors. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were constructed with combined anatomical and physiological factors. Cox multivariate analysis revealed age (P < 0.001) and BMI (P = 0.01) as significant factors affecting survival. Receiver operating curve analysis determined cut-off levels for age of 67 and BMI of 27.6. A composite anatomical and physiological survival curve based on TNM for BMI > 27.6 and age < 67 was produced. Age and BMI criteria resulted in significantly different survival curves, for stage I (P < 0.0001) and stage II (P = 0.0032), but not for stage III (P = 0.06). Neural network analysis confirmed the importance of BMI and age above cancer stage with regard to long-term survival. Combining age < 67, BMI > 27.6 and TNM anatomical classification results in very different estimated survival curves from the usual TNM system. Patients from stages I, II and III may have survival equivalent to a stage higher or lower depending on their age and BMI.
肿瘤-淋巴结-转移(TNM)分类系统是以解剖学为基础的。我们研究了添加简单的生理变量,即年龄和体重指数(BMI),是否会影响生存曲线,也就是一种综合解剖学和生理学的分期系统。我们回顾性分析了一个经过前瞻性验证的胸外科手术数据库(n = 1981)。进行Cox多变量分析以确定可能的显著因素。构建了结合解剖学和生理学因素的Kaplan-Meier生存曲线。Cox多变量分析显示年龄(P < 0.001)和BMI(P = 0.01)是影响生存的显著因素。受试者工作特征曲线分析确定年龄的临界值为67,BMI的临界值为27.6。生成了基于TNM的、针对BMI > 27.6且年龄 < 67的综合解剖学和生理学生存曲线。年龄和BMI标准导致I期(P < 0.0001)和II期(P = 0.0032)的生存曲线有显著差异,但III期没有(P = 0.06)。神经网络分析证实,就长期生存而言,BMI和年龄在癌症分期之上具有重要性。将年龄 < 67、BMI > 27.6与TNM解剖学分类相结合,得出的估计生存曲线与通常的TNM系统非常不同。I期、II期和III期的患者根据其年龄和BMI,其生存情况可能相当于高一个分期或低一个分期。