East-West Center, 1601 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96848, USA.
Environ Manage. 2012 May;49(5):968-79. doi: 10.1007/s00267-012-9828-3. Epub 2012 Apr 4.
We used the conversion of land use and its effects (CLUE-s) model to simulate scenarios of land-cover change in Montane mainland southeast Asia (MMSEA), a region in the midst of transformation due to rapid intensification of agriculture and expansion of regional trade markets. Simulated changes affected approximately 10 % of the MMSEA landscape between 2001 and 2025 and 16 % between 2001 and 2050. Roughly 9 % of the current vegetation, which consists of native species of trees, shrubs, and grasses, is projected to be replaced by tree plantations, tea, and other evergreen shrubs during the 50 years period. Importantly, 4 % of this transition is expected to be due to the expansion of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis), a tree plantation crop that may have important implications for local-to-regional scale hydrology because of its potentially high water consumption in the dry season.
我们使用土地利用变化及其影响（CLUE-s）模型来模拟东南亚山地大陆（MMSEA）的土地覆盖变化情景，该地区由于农业快速集约化和区域贸易市场的扩大，正处于转型之中。模拟的变化在 2001 年至 2025 年期间影响了 MMSEA 景观的约 10%，在 2001 年至 2050 年期间影响了 16%。目前约有 9%的植被由树木、灌木和草本植物等本地物种组成，预计在 50 年内将被人工林、茶叶和其他常绿灌木所取代。重要的是，预计这一转变的 4%将是由于橡胶（巴西橡胶树）的扩张，橡胶是一种人工林作物，由于其在旱季可能有很高的耗水量，因此可能对地方到区域尺度的水文学有重要影响。
