Deb Jiban Chandra, Phinn Stuart, Butt Nathalie, McAlpine Clive A
Remote Sensing Research Centre, School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, 4072, Australia.
Department of Forestry and Environmental Science, School of Agriculture and Mineral Sciences, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet, 3114, Bangladesh.
Environ Manage. 2017 Sep;60(3):422-435. doi: 10.1007/s00267-017-0884-6. Epub 2017 May 4.
Modelling the future suitable climate space for tree species has become a widely used tool for forest management planning under global climate change. Teak (Tectona grandis) is one of the most valuable tropical hardwood species in the international timber market, and natural teak forests are distributed from India through Myanmar, Laos and Thailand. The extents of teak forests are shrinking due to deforestation and the local impacts of global climate change. However, the direct impacts of climate changes on the continental-scale distributions of native and non-native teak have not been examined. In this study, we developed a species distribution model for teak across its entire native distribution in tropical Asia, and its non-native distribution in Bangladesh. We used presence-only records of trees and twelve environmental variables that were most representative for current teak distributions in South and Southeast Asia. MaxEnt (maximum entropy) models were used to model the distributions of teak under current and future climate scenarios. We found that land use/land cover change and elevation were the two most important variables explaining the current and future distributions of native and non-native teak in tropical Asia. Changes in annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality and annual mean actual evapotranspiration may result in shifts in the distributions of teak across tropical Asia. We discuss the implications for the conservation of critical teak habitats, forest management planning, and risks of biological invasion that may occur due to its cultivation in non-native ranges.
为树种模拟未来适宜气候空间已成为全球气候变化背景下森林管理规划中广泛使用的工具。柚木（柚木属）是国际木材市场上最有价值的热带硬木树种之一，天然柚木林分布于从印度到缅甸、老挝和泰国的地区。由于森林砍伐和全球气候变化的局部影响，柚木林面积正在缩小。然而，气候变化对原生和非原生柚木在大陆尺度分布的直接影响尚未得到研究。在本研究中，我们针对柚木在热带亚洲的整个原生分布范围及其在孟加拉国的非原生分布范围，开发了一个物种分布模型。我们使用了仅包含树木存在信息的记录以及十二个对南亚和东南亚当前柚木分布最具代表性的环境变量。利用最大熵（MaxEnt）模型来模拟当前和未来气候情景下柚木的分布。我们发现土地利用/土地覆盖变化和海拔是解释热带亚洲原生和非原生柚木当前及未来分布的两个最重要变量。年降水量、降水季节性和年平均实际蒸散量的变化可能导致柚木在热带亚洲的分布发生变化。我们讨论了对关键柚木栖息地保护、森林管理规划的影响，以及由于在非原生范围内种植柚木可能出现的生物入侵风险。
