School of Public Health, Curtin University, Western Australia.
Health Promot J Austr. 2011 Dec;22 Spec No:S48-53. doi: 10.1071/he11448.
Managing an issue of the magnitude, scope and complexity of climate change is a daunting prospect, yet one which nations around the world must face. Climate change is an issue without boundaries--impacts will cut across administrative and geographical borders and be felt by every sector of society. Responses to climate change will need to employ system approaches that take into account the relationships that cross organisational and sectoral boundaries. Solutions designed in isolation from these interdependencies will be unlikely to succeed, squandering opportunities for long-term effective adaptation. Health Impact Assessment (HIA) provides a structural approach to identify, evaluate and manage health impacts of climate change that is inclusive of a wide range of stakeholders. Climate change will affect decision-making across every government level and sector and the health implications of these decisions can also be addressed with HIA. Given the nature of the issue, HIA of climate change will identify a large number of variables that influence the type and extent of health impacts and the management of these impacts. In order to implement the most effective adaptation measures, it is critica that an understanding of the interactions between these variables is developed. The outcome of HIA of climate change can therefore be strengthened by the introduction of system dynamics tools, such as causal loop diagrams, that are designed to examine interactions between variables and the resulting behaviour of complex systems.
应对气候变化这种规模巨大、范围广泛且复杂的问题是一项艰巨的任务，但世界各国必须面对这一挑战。气候变化是一个没有边界的问题——其影响将跨越行政和地理边界，影响社会的各个部门。应对气候变化的措施需要采用系统方法，考虑跨越组织和部门边界的关系。如果不考虑这些相互依存关系而孤立地设计解决方案，就不太可能取得长期有效的适应效果，从而错失机会。健康影响评估（HIA）提供了一种结构性方法，可以识别、评估和管理气候变化对健康的影响，其中包括广泛的利益相关者。气候变化将影响各级政府和各个部门的决策，而这些决策对健康的影响也可以通过 HIA 来解决。鉴于问题的性质，气候变化 HIA 将确定影响健康影响的类型和程度以及这些影响的管理的大量变量。为了实施最有效的适应措施，必须了解这些变量之间的相互作用。因此，可以通过引入系统动力学工具（例如因果关系图）来加强气候变化 HIA 的结果，这些工具旨在检查变量之间的相互作用以及复杂系统的由此产生的行为。
