Teno J, Kiel D P, Mor V
Center for Gerontology and Health Care Research, Rhode Island Hospital, Brown University Program in Medicine, Providence.
J Am Geriatr Soc. 1990 Dec;38(12):1321-5. doi: 10.1111/j.1532-5415.1990.tb03455.x.
To better understand risk factors for falls among community-dwelling elderly, we analyzed data from a sample of elderly Medicare beneficiaries interviewed in 1987 and a year later. Demographic, social, medical, and functional information were obtained by telephone interviews with 736 subjects (68% women) whose average age was 76.5 (range, 65-99). At baseline, 63 subjects reported a fall and 67 reported two or more stumbles without a fall in the past month. At the second interview follow-up information on falls in the past year was obtained on 586 subjects. One hundred twenty-seven (22%) subjects reported one or more falls. Baseline risk factors that were independent predictors of a fall at the second interview included two or more stumbles (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 2.3, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-4.5), one or more falls (AOR 5.9, 95% CI 2.9-12.2), having spent 4 or more days in bed in the past month (AOR 7.7, 95% CI 1.9-31.0), and self-reported declining health status (AOR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1-3.5). Falls and stumbles are prevalent among community-dwelling elderly. After controlling for covariates, we found subjects who reported two or more stumbles in the past month are at increased risk for a fall in the following year.
为了更好地了解社区居住老年人跌倒的风险因素，我们分析了1987年及一年后接受访谈的老年医疗保险受益人的样本数据。通过电话访谈736名受试者（68%为女性）获取了人口统计学、社会、医学和功能信息，这些受试者的平均年龄为76.5岁（范围65 - 99岁）。在基线时，63名受试者报告在过去一个月内有跌倒，67名报告有两次或更多次未跌倒的绊倒。在第二次访谈时，获取了586名受试者过去一年跌倒的随访信息。127名（22%）受试者报告有一次或多次跌倒。在第二次访谈时，作为跌倒独立预测因素的基线风险因素包括两次或更多次绊倒（调整优势比[AOR] 2.3，95%置信区间[CI] 1.2 - 4.5）、一次或多次跌倒（AOR 5.9，95% CI 2.9 - 12.2）、过去一个月卧床4天或更长时间（AOR 7.7，95% CI 1.9 - 31.0）以及自我报告的健康状况下降（AOR 2.0，95% CI 1.1 - 3.5）。跌倒和绊倒在社区居住老年人中很普遍。在控制协变量后，我们发现过去一个月报告有两次或更多次绊倒的受试者在接下来一年跌倒的风险增加。
