Department of Biostructure, University School of Physical Education, Wrocław, Poland.
Am J Hum Biol. 2012 Sep-Oct;24(5):587-94. doi: 10.1002/ajhb.22272. Epub 2012 May 3.
To evaluate short-term secular change in menarche and associations with blood lead level in Polish girls between 1995 and 2007.
Menarcheal status of school girls 7-16 years from villages in southwestern Poland was surveyed in 1995, 2001, 2004, and 2007. Blood lead was sampled in 1995 and 2007. Median ages and variance statistics for menarche were estimated with probit analysis. Associations between blood lead level and menarcheal status in 1995 and 2007 were analyzed with logistic regression using blood lead level as an independent binary variable: 2.00-5.00 and ≥5.10 μg/dl.
Median ages at menarche declined slightly from 1995 (13.36 ± 0.06 years) to 2001 (13.20 ± 0.04 years), was stable in 2004 (13.20 ± 0.05 years), and declined to 2007 (12.81 ± 0.05 years). Blood lead levels declined from 6.57 ± 0.13 μg/dl in 1995 to 4.24 ± 0.14 μg/dl in 2007. With age, height, and BMI controlled, probability of attaining menarche was not associated with blood lead in 1995, but was decreased with increased blood lead in 2007 (OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.09-1.06, P = 0.057).
Ages at menarche and blood lead levels declined between 1995 and 2007. Higher blood lead levels were not associated with menarche in 1995, suggesting that nutritional and health conditions and perhaps somewhat unstable social and economic conditions in the 1980s and early 1990s may have masked the influence of lead on sexual maturation. Elevated blood lead was associated with the probability of later menarche in 2007, although the association was of borderline (P = 0.06).
评估波兰女孩青春期的短期时间变化趋势，以及其与 1995 年至 2007 年间血铅水平的关联。
1995 年、2001 年、2004 年和 2007 年，对波兰西南部乡村的 7-16 岁女学生的月经初潮情况进行了调查。1995 年和 2007 年采集了血样以检测血铅。采用概率分析估计青春期和方差统计的中位数年龄。采用 logistic 回归分析 1995 年和 2007 年血铅水平与月经初潮状态的关系，将血铅水平作为独立的二分变量：2.00-5.00μg/dl 和≥5.10μg/dl。
青春期年龄中位数从 1995 年的 13.36±0.06 岁略有下降到 2001 年的 13.20±0.04 岁，在 2004 年保持稳定（13.20±0.05 岁），然后在 2007 年下降到 12.81±0.05 岁。血铅水平从 1995 年的 6.57±0.13μg/dl 下降到 2007 年的 4.24±0.14μg/dl。在控制年龄、身高和 BMI 的情况下，1995 年血铅与月经初潮的可能性无关，但 2007 年血铅与月经初潮的可能性呈负相关（OR 0.31，95%CI 0.09-1.06，P=0.057）。
1995 年至 2007 年间，月经初潮年龄和血铅水平均呈下降趋势。1995 年较高的血铅水平与月经初潮无关，这表明 20 世纪 80 年代和 90 年代初营养和健康状况以及不稳定的社会经济状况可能掩盖了铅对性成熟的影响。尽管处于边缘状态（P=0.06），但 2007 年较高的血铅与月经初潮的可能性呈正相关。
