de Koning H J, Boer R, van der Maas P J, van Ineveld B M, Collette H J, Hendriks J H
Erasmus Universiteit, Instituut Maatschappelijke Gezondheidszorg, Rotterdam.
Ned Tijdschr Geneeskd. 1990 Nov 17;134(46):2240-5.
Breast cancer screening trials in several countries have proved to reduce breast cancer mortality. However, the trials show considerable differences in the extent of this reduction. The Swedish projects in Kopparberg/Ostergötland and Malmö are the most similar to the Dutch situation. The confidence intervals of the effect estimates of both projects are large. A critical review of all differences cannot yet lead to a conclusion on the difference in the estimated effects of both trials. Assuming equal mammographic quality in both projects, a reduction of 33% in breast cancer mortality for women in the age-group of 50 to 70 years seems a good estimate for similar projects. This assumption applied to a Dutch nationwide project, it will eventually lead to a reduction in breast cancer mortality of 16% for the entire population. In the year 2015 about 700 women will not die of breast cancer who would have without screening.
几个国家的乳腺癌筛查试验已证明可降低乳腺癌死亡率。然而，这些试验在降低程度上显示出相当大的差异。瑞典在耶夫勒堡/东约特兰和马尔默的项目与荷兰的情况最为相似。这两个项目效果估计的置信区间都很大。对所有差异进行批判性审查，目前还无法得出关于这两项试验估计效果差异的结论。假设两个项目的乳腺钼靶检查质量相同，对于50至70岁年龄段的女性，乳腺癌死亡率降低33%似乎是对类似项目的一个合理估计。将这一假设应用于荷兰的全国性项目，最终将使整个人口的乳腺癌死亡率降低16%。在2015年，约700名原本会死于乳腺癌的女性将不会因筛查而死亡。
