McKee Douglas, Todd Petra E
Post-doctoral scholar at the Economic Growth Center at Yale University.
Estud Econ. 2011 Jun;38(1):67-100. doi: 10.4067/s0718-52862011000100004.
Previous empirical research has shown that Mexico's Oportunidades program has succeeded in increasing schooling and improving health of disadvantaged children. This paper studies the program's potential longer-term consequences for the poverty and inequality of these children. It adapts methods developed in DiNardo, Fortin and Lemieux (1996) and incorporates existing experimental estimates of the program's effects on human capital to analyze how Oportunidades will affect future earnings of program participants. We nonparametrically simulate earnings distributions, with and without the program, and predict that Oportunidades will increase future mean earnings but have only modest effects on poverty rates and earnings inequality.
先前的实证研究表明，墨西哥的“机遇计划”成功增加了弱势儿童的受教育年限并改善了他们的健康状况。本文研究该计划对这些儿童的贫困和不平等状况可能产生的长期影响。它采用了迪纳尔多、福尔廷和勒米厄（1996年）开发的方法，并纳入了该计划对人力资本影响的现有实验估计值，以分析“机遇计划”将如何影响计划参与者未来的收入。我们对有该计划和没有该计划的情况下的收入分布进行非参数模拟，并预测“机遇计划”将提高未来的平均收入，但对贫困率和收入不平等的影响不大。
