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当病媒的取食部位受到限制时,病媒传播病原体的模型显示出复杂的动态。

Modelling transmission of vector-borne pathogens shows complex dynamics when vector feeding sites are limited.

机构信息

Department of Evolutionary and Environmental Biology, and the Institute of Evolution, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2012;7(5):e36730. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0036730. Epub 2012 May 8.

Abstract

The relationship between species richness and the prevalence of vector-borne disease has been widely studied with a range of outcomes. Increasing the number of host species for a pathogen may decrease infection prevalence (dilution effect), increase it (amplification), or have no effect. We derive a general model, and a specific implementation, which show that when the number of vector feeding sites on each host is limiting, the effects on pathogen dynamics of host population size are more complex than previously thought. The model examines vector-borne disease in the presence of different host species that are either competent or incompetent (i.e. that cannot transmit the pathogen to vectors) as reservoirs for the pathogen. With a single host species present, the basic reproduction ratio R(0) is a non-monotonic function of the population size of host individuals (H), i.e. a value [Formula: see text] exists that maximises R(0). Surprisingly, if [Formula: see text] a reduction in host population size may actually increase R(0). Extending this model to a two-host species system, incompetent individuals from the second host species can alter the value of [Formula: see text] which may reverse the effect on pathogen prevalence of host population reduction. We argue that when vector-feeding sites on hosts are limiting, the net effect of increasing host diversity might not be correctly predicted using simple frequency-dependent epidemiological models.

摘要

物种丰富度与媒介传播疾病的流行之间的关系已经得到了广泛的研究,结果各不相同。增加病原体的宿主物种数量可能会降低感染率(稀释效应),也可能会增加感染率(放大效应),或者没有影响。我们推导出一个通用模型和一个具体实现,表明当每个宿主的媒介取食部位数量有限时,宿主种群大小对病原体动态的影响比以前认为的要复杂得多。该模型研究了存在不同宿主物种的媒介传播疾病,这些宿主物种要么是有能力的(即能够将病原体传播给媒介),要么是无能力的(即不能将病原体传播给媒介)作为病原体的储主。当只有一个宿主物种存在时,基本繁殖比 R(0) 是宿主个体数量(H)的非单调函数,即存在一个值 [Formula: see text] 使得 R(0) 最大化。令人惊讶的是,如果 [Formula: see text] 那么减少宿主种群数量实际上可能会增加 R(0)。将这个模型扩展到一个双宿主物种系统,第二个宿主物种中的无能力个体可以改变 [Formula: see text] 的值,这可能会反转宿主种群减少对病原体流行率的影响。我们认为,当宿主上的媒介取食部位有限时,使用简单的频率依赖型流行病学模型可能无法正确预测增加宿主多样性的净效应。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f856/3348133/7882b1fe9054/pone.0036730.g001.jpg

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