Okeno Tobias O, Magothe Thomas M, Kahi Alexander K, Peters Kurt J
Animal Breeding in the Tropics and Sub-tropics, Department of Crop and Livestock Sciences, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Philippstraße 13, Haus 9, 10115, Berlin, Germany.
Trop Anim Health Prod. 2013 Jan;45(1):193-203. doi: 10.1007/s11250-012-0191-4. Epub 2012 May 29.
A bio-economic model was developed to evaluate the utilisation of indigenous chickens (IC) under different production systems accounting for the risk attitude of the farmers. The model classified the production systems into three categories based on the level of management: free-range system (FRS), where chickens were left to scavenge for feed resources with no supplementation and healthcare; intensive system (IS), where the chickens were permanently confined and supplied with rationed feed and healthcare; and semi-intensive system (SIS), a hybrid of FRS and IS, where the chickens were partially confined, supplemented with rationed feeds, provided with healthcare and allowed to scavenge within the homestead or in runs. The model allows prediction of the live weights and feed intake at different stages in the life cycle of the IC and can compute the profitability of each production system using both traditional and risk-rated profit models. The input parameters used in the model represent a typical IC production system in developing countries but are flexible and therefore can be modified to suit specific situations and simulate profitability and costs of other poultry species production systems. The model has the capability to derive the economic values as changes in the genetic merit of the biological parameter results in marginal changes in profitability and costs of the production systems. The results suggested that utilisation of IC in their current genetic merit and production environment is more profitable under FRS and SIS but not economically viable under IS.
开发了一种生物经济模型，以评估在考虑农民风险态度的情况下，不同生产系统中本地鸡（IC）的利用情况。该模型根据管理水平将生产系统分为三类：自由放养系统（FRS），即鸡只自行觅食饲料资源，不进行补充喂养和保健；集约化系统（IS），即鸡只被永久圈养，并供应定量饲料和保健服务；半集约化系统（SIS），是FRS和IS的混合体，鸡只部分圈养，补充定量饲料，提供保健服务，并允许在宅基地或鸡舍内觅食。该模型可以预测本地鸡生命周期不同阶段的体重和采食量，并可以使用传统利润模型和风险评级利润模型计算每个生产系统的盈利能力。模型中使用的输入参数代表了发展中国家典型的本地鸡生产系统，但具有灵活性，因此可以根据具体情况进行修改，以模拟其他家禽品种生产系统的盈利能力和成本。该模型能够得出经济价值，因为生物参数遗传价值的变化会导致生产系统盈利能力和成本的边际变化。结果表明，在目前的遗传价值和生产环境下，本地鸡在自由放养系统和半集约化系统下更具盈利性，但在集约化系统下在经济上不可行。
