MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2012 Jun 8;61(22):410-3.
In the past few years, all large population health surveys that depend on telephone interviews, including the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), have had to adjust to the rapid rise in the proportion of U.S. households that have a cellular telephone but no landline telephone. To maintain survey coverage and validity, surveys have had to add cellular telephone households to their samples. In addition, telephone surveys have had to make adjustments in weighting to account for declining response rates by adopting new methods of weighting to adjust survey data for differences between the demographic characteristics of respondents and the target population. Since 2004, BRFSS has been planning and testing the addition of cellular telephone households and improvements in its methods of statistical weighting. These new methods were implemented during the fielding of the 2011 BRFSS, which is to be released in 2012. This policy note describes the methodologic changes and their potential effects on BRFSS prevalence estimates. Preliminary assessments indicate that the inclusion of cellular telephone respondents and the move to a new method of weighting might increase prevalence estimates for health risk behaviors and chronic disease in many states. Carefully planned communication to public health officials and nonscientific audiences of the effect of changes in methods on estimates is needed to prevent misinterpretation.
在过去的几年中，所有依赖电话访谈的大型人口健康调查，包括行为风险因素监测系统（BRFSS），都不得不适应美国拥有移动电话但没有固定电话的家庭比例的快速上升。为了保持调查的覆盖范围和有效性，调查必须将移动电话家庭纳入样本。此外，电话调查还必须通过采用新的加权方法来调整加权，以调整调查数据，使其反映受访者的人口统计学特征与目标人口之间的差异，从而应对应答率下降的问题。自 2004 年以来，BRFSS 一直在规划和测试增加移动电话家庭的方法，并改进其统计加权方法。这些新方法在 2011 年 BRFSS 的实施中得到了应用，该调查结果将于 2012 年公布。本政策说明介绍了方法上的变化及其对 BRFSS 流行率估计的潜在影响。初步评估表明，包括移动电话应答者以及转向新的加权方法，可能会增加许多州的健康风险行为和慢性病的流行率估计值。需要精心计划向公共卫生官员和非科学受众传达方法变化对估计值的影响，以防止误解。
