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[1948年至1958年首次受雇的玛雅克生产协会工人队列中脑血管疾病发病风险]

[Risk of cerebrovascular disease incidence in the cohort of Mayak production association workers first employed during 1948-1958].

作者信息

Moseeva M B, Azizova T V, Muirhed C R, Grigor'eva E S, Vlasenko E V, Sumina M V, O'Hagan J A, Zang W, Haylock R G E, Hunter N

出版信息

Radiats Biol Radioecol. 2012 Mar-Apr;52(2):149-57.

Abstract

Incidence of cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) has been studied in a cohort of 12210 workers first employed at one of the main plants (reactors, radiochemical or plutonium) of the Mayak nuclear facility during 1948-1958 and followed up to the end of 2000. Information on external gamma doses is available for virtually all (99.9%) of these workers; the mean (+/- one standard deviation) total gamma dose was 0.91 +/- 0.95 Gy (99% percentile 3.9 Gy) for men and 0.65 +/- 0.75 Gy (99% percentile 2.99 Gy) for women. Plutonium body burden was measured only for 30.0% of workers. Amongst those monitored, the mean (+/- standard deviation) cumulative liver dose from plutonium alpha exposure was 0.40 +/- 1.15 Gy (99% percentile 5.88 Gy) for men and 0.81 +/- 4.60 Gy (99% percentile 15.95 Gy) for women 4418 cases (first diagnosis) of CVD were identified in the studied cohort. A statistically significant increasing trend in CVD incidence with total external gamma dose was revealed after adjustment for non-radiation factors and internal exposure from incorporated plutonium-239. Excess relative risk per Gy was 0.464 (95% confidence interval 0.360-0.567). Incidence of CVD was statistically significantly higher for the workers chronically exposed to external gamma rays at a dose above 1.0 Gy A statistically significant increasing trend in CVD incidence with internal liver dose from plutonium alpha exposure was observed after adjustment for non-radiation factors and external exposure. ERR per Gy was 0.155 (95% confidence interval 0.075-0.235). CVD incidence was statistically significantly higher among workers with a plutonium liver dose above 0.1 Gy, although the trend estimates differed between workers at different plants. The incidence risk estimates for external radiation are generally compatible with estimates from the study of Chernobyl clean-up workers, although the incidence data point to higher risk estimates compared to those from the Japanese A-bomb survivors.

摘要

对1948年至1958年期间首次受雇于马亚克核设施主要工厂(反应堆、放射化学或钚工厂)之一的12210名工人组成的队列进行了脑血管疾病(CVD)发病率研究,并随访至2000年底。几乎所有(99.9%)这些工人都有外部γ剂量信息;男性的平均(±一个标准差)总γ剂量为0.91±0.95 Gy(99%百分位数为3.9 Gy),女性为0.65±0.75 Gy(99%百分位数为2.99 Gy)。仅对30.0%的工人测量了钚体内负荷。在接受监测的人员中,男性因钚α暴露导致的肝脏累积剂量平均(±标准差)为0.40±1.15 Gy(99%百分位数为5.88 Gy),女性为0.81±4.60 Gy(99%百分位数为15.95 Gy)。在研究队列中确定了4418例(首次诊断)CVD病例。在对非辐射因素和摄入钚-239的内照射进行调整后,发现CVD发病率随外部总γ剂量呈统计学显著上升趋势。每Gy的超额相对风险为0.464(95%置信区间0.360 - 0.567)。对于长期暴露于剂量高于1.0 Gy的外部γ射线的工人,CVD发病率在统计学上显著更高。在对非辐射因素和外照射进行调整后,观察到CVD发病率随钚α暴露导致的肝脏内剂量呈统计学显著上升趋势。每Gy的ERR为0.155(95%置信区间0.075 - 0.235)。钚肝脏剂量高于0.1 Gy的工人中,CVD发病率在统计学上显著更高,尽管不同工厂工人的趋势估计有所不同。外部辐射的发病风险估计总体上与切尔诺贝利清理工人研究的估计结果相符,尽管发病数据显示风险估计高于日本原子弹幸存者的估计结果。

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