Predictors of survival and sudden death in patients with stable severe congestive heart failure due to ischemic and nonischemic causes: a prospective long term study of 200 patients.

This prospective study of 200 stable outpatients with New York Hospital Association (NYHA) class III congestive heart failure on maximal medical therapy was done to determine which factors affect survival, to record the incidence of sudden death, and to identify prognostic features which characterize patients at high risk of sudden death. Congestive heart failure was due to coronary artery disease in 151 patients (76%). After an average follow-up of 40 months, 96 patients (48%) had died: 30 (15%) suddenly, 41 (22%) of low output, and 25 (13%) of other causes. Of the 30 patients dying suddenly 12 had autopsies, and acute myocardial infarction was found in nine. Of the 41 patients dying of low output 15 had autopsies, and recent myocardial infarction was found in five. Nine of the 25 patients dying of other causes died of acute myocardial infarction. Multivariate stepwise analysis revealed that severity of ventricular arrhythmias (modified Lown classification), exercise tolerance and left ventricular ejection fraction were the most important determinants of survival. In patients with coronary artery disease, complex ventricular arrhythmias detected by ambulatory Holter monitoring were frequent in all groups and were not clinically useful in predicting which of these patients were at a higher risk of dying suddenly. In contrast, patients without coronary artery disease who died suddenly had a higher incidence of nonsustained ventricular tachycardia and a tendency towards more frequent ventricular arrhythmias in general. The authors conclude that in ambulatory patients with stable NYHA class III heart failure, the severity of ventricular arrhythmias is a predictor of survival.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)