Programa de Computação Científica, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil.
Cad Saude Publica. 2012 Jul;28(7):1325-36. doi: 10.1590/s0102-311x2012000700011.
This study describes the main features of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Brazil during 2009. Brazil is a large country that extends roughly from latitudes 5ºN to 34ºS. Brazil has tropical and sub-tropical climates, a heterogeneous population distribution, and intense urbanization in the southern portions of the country and along its Atlantic coast. Our analysis points to a wide variation in infection rates throughout the country, and includes both latitudinal effects and strong variations in detection rates. Two states (out of a total of 23) were responsible for 73% of all cases reported. Real time reproduction numbers demonstrate that influenza transmission was sustained in the country, beginning in May of 2009. Finally, this study discusses the challenges in understanding the infection dynamics of influenza and the adequacy of Brazil's influenza monitoring system.
本研究描述了 2009 年巴西大流行性流感 A（H1N1）的主要特征。巴西是一个幅员辽阔的国家，大致从北纬 5 度延伸到南纬 34 度。巴西拥有热带和亚热带气候，人口分布不均，该国南部和大西洋沿岸地区城市化程度很高。我们的分析表明，该国各地的感染率差异很大，包括纬度影响和检测率的巨大差异。在总共 23 个州中，有两个州的病例占所有报告病例的 73%。实时繁殖数表明，2009 年 5 月开始，流感在该国持续传播。最后，本研究讨论了理解流感感染动态和巴西流感监测系统充分性所面临的挑战。
