Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, Department of Psychology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Psychosom Med. 2012 Jul-Aug;74(6):560-6. doi: 10.1097/PSY.0b013e318259c33f. Epub 2012 Jun 28.
To investigate whether and to what extent mortality is predictable from facial photographs of older people.
High-quality facial photographs of 292 members of the Lothian Birth Cohort 1921, taken at the age of about 83 years, were rated in terms of apparent age, health, attractiveness, facial symmetry, intelligence, and well-being by 12 young-adult raters. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to study associations between these ratings and mortality during a 7-year follow-up period.
All ratings had adequate reliability. Concurrent validity was found for facial symmetry and intelligence (as determined by correlations with actual measures of fluctuating asymmetry in the faces and Raven Standard Progressive Matrices score, respectively), but not for the other traits. Age as rated from facial photographs, adjusted for sex and chronological age, was a significant predictor of mortality (hazard ratio = 1.36, 95% confidence interval = 1.12-1.65) and remained significant even after controlling for concurrent, objectively measured health and cognitive ability, and the other ratings. Health as rated from facial photographs, adjusted for sex and chronological age, significantly predicted mortality (hazard ratio = 0.81, 95% confidence interval = 0.67-0.99) but not after adjusting for rated age or objectively measured health and cognition. Rated attractiveness, symmetry, intelligence, and well-being were not significantly associated with mortality risk.
Rated age of the face is a significant predictor of mortality risk among older people, with predictive value over and above that of objective or rated health status and cognitive ability.
探讨从老年人的面部照片中是否以及在何种程度上可以预测死亡率。
对 292 名洛锡安出生队列 1921 年成员的高质量面部照片进行了评估，这些照片是在他们大约 83 岁时拍摄的，由 12 名年轻成年人评估员根据表观年龄、健康状况、吸引力、面部对称性、智力和幸福感进行评估。使用 Cox 比例风险回归来研究这些评分与 7 年随访期间死亡率之间的关联。
所有评分的可靠性都足够。面部对称性和智力评分与实际面部波动不对称的测量值和 Raven 标准渐进矩阵评分相关，具有一致性效度（通过相关性确定），但其他特征没有。从面部照片中评估的年龄，在调整了性别和实际年龄后，是死亡率的一个重要预测因素（风险比=1.36，95%置信区间=1.12-1.65），即使在控制了同时评估的健康和认知能力以及其他评分后，这一预测仍然具有显著意义。从面部照片中评估的健康状况，在调整了性别和实际年龄后，显著预测了死亡率（风险比=0.81，95%置信区间=0.67-0.99），但在调整了评分年龄或客观评估的健康和认知能力后，这一预测不再显著。评估的吸引力、对称性、智力和幸福感与死亡率风险没有显著关联。
面部年龄的评分是老年人死亡率风险的一个重要预测因素，其预测价值超过了客观或评分健康状况和认知能力的预测价值。
