巴西圣埃斯皮里图州 2004 年至 2009 年新发现麻风病例的空间分析。
Spatial analysis of new cases of leprosy in the State of Espírito Santo, Brazil, between 2004 and 2009.
机构信息
Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, Vitória, ES, Brasil.
出版信息
Rev Soc Bras Med Trop. 2012 Jun;45(3):380-4. doi: 10.1590/s0037-86822012000300019.
INTRODUCTION
Leprosy in Brazil is a public health issue, and there are many regions in the State of Espírito Santo with high endemic incidence levels of leprosy, characterizing this state as a priority for leprosy programs. The aim of this study was to determine the spatial distribution of coefficients of new cases of leprosy in the State of Espírito Santo, Brazil.
METHODS
We conducted a descriptive and ecologic study based on the spatial distribution of leprosy in the State of Espírito Santo between 2004 and 2009. Data were gathered from the available records of the Espírito Santo State Health Secretary. The global and local Bayesian empirical methods were used to produce an estimate of leprosy risk, smoothing the fluctuation effects of the detection coefficients.
RESULTS
The study resulted in a coefficient adjustment of new cases in 10 towns that changed their classification, among which, 2 went from low to medium, 4 from medium to high, 3 from high to very high, and 1 from very high to hyper-endemic. An average variation of 1.02, fluctuating between 0 and 12.39 cases/100,000 inhabitants, was found in a comparative calculation between the Local Ebest value and the average coefficient of new leprosy cases in the State of Espírito Santo.
CONCLUSIONS
The spatial analysis of leprosy favors the establishment of control strategies with a better cost-benefit relationship since it reveals specific and priority regions, thereby enabling the development of actions that can interfere in the transmission chain.
简介
巴西的麻风病是一个公共卫生问题，圣埃斯皮里图州有许多地区的麻风病地方性流行发病率很高，这使得该州成为麻风病规划的重点。本研究旨在确定巴西圣埃斯皮里图州麻风病新发病例系数的空间分布。
方法
我们进行了一项描述性和生态研究，基于 2004 年至 2009 年期间圣埃斯皮里图州麻风病的空间分布。数据来自圣埃斯皮里图州卫生局长现有记录中收集。采用全局和局部贝叶斯经验方法来估计麻风病风险，平滑检测系数的波动效应。
结果
该研究导致 10 个城镇的新发病例系数调整，改变了它们的分类，其中 2 个从低到中，4 个从中等到高，3 个从高到非常高，1 个从非常高到超地方性。在局部 Ebest 值与圣埃斯皮里图州新麻风病病例平均系数的比较计算中，发现了平均变化为 1.02，波动在 0 到 12.39 例/10 万居民之间。
结论
麻风病的空间分析有利于制定具有更好成本效益关系的控制策略，因为它揭示了特定和优先的地区，从而可以开展可以干预传播链的行动。
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