NILU (Norwegian Institute for Air Research), Instituttveien 18, 2027 Kjeller, Norway.
J Environ Radioact. 2012 Oct;112:155-9. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2012.06.001. Epub 2012 Jul 7.
The accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant (FD-NPP) on 11 March 2011 released large amounts of radioactivity into the atmosphere. We determine the total emission of the noble gas xenon-133 ((133)Xe) using global atmospheric concentration measurements. For estimating the emissions, we used three different methods: (i) using a purely observation-based multi-box model, (ii) comparisons of dispersion model results driven with GFS meteorological data with the observation data, and (iii) such comparisons with the dispersion model driven by ECMWF data. From these three methods, we have obtained total (133)Xe releases from FD-NPP of (i) 16.7 ± 1.9 EBq, (ii) 14.2 ± 0.8 EBq, and (iii) 19.0 ± 3.4 EBq, respectively. These values are substantially larger than the entire (133)Xe inventory of FD-NPP of about 12.2 EBq derived from calculations of nuclear fuel burn-up. Complete release of the entire (133)Xe inventory of FD-NPP and additional release of (133)Xe due to the decay of iodine-133 ((133)I), which can add another 2 EBq to the (133)Xe FD-NPP inventory, is required to explain the atmospheric observations. Two of our three methods indicate even higher emissions, but this may not be a robust finding given the differences between our estimates.
2011 年 3 月 11 日福岛第一核电站(FD-NPP)事故向大气中释放了大量放射性物质。我们使用全球大气浓度测量来确定惰性气体氙-133((133)Xe)的总排放量。为了估计排放量,我们使用了三种不同的方法:(i)使用纯基于观测的多箱模型,(ii)将使用 GFS 气象数据驱动的扩散模型结果与观测数据进行比较,以及(iii)使用 ECMWF 数据驱动的扩散模型进行比较。通过这三种方法,我们分别得到了来自 FD-NPP 的总(133)Xe 排放量为(i)16.7 ± 1.9 EBq、(ii)14.2 ± 0.8 EBq 和(iii)19.0 ± 3.4 EBq。这些值明显大于从核燃料燃烧计算得出的 FD-NPP 的全部(133)Xe 库存约 12.2 EBq。要解释大气观测结果,需要完全释放 FD-NPP 的全部(133)Xe 库存,并由于碘-133((133)I)的衰变而额外释放(133)Xe,这可能会使 FD-NPP 的(133)Xe 库存增加 2 EBq。我们的三种方法中的两种表明排放量更高,但由于我们的估计之间存在差异,这可能不是一个可靠的发现。