Haghdoost Aliakbar, Baneshi Mohammad Reza, Zolala Farzaneh, Farvahari Sirous, Safizadeh Hossein
Research Center for Modeling in Health, Biostatistics and Epidemiology Department, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Int J Prev Med. 2012 Jun;3(6):408-13.
Iran, similar to other countries, had faced H1N1 flu outbreak in 2009. In order to assess its transmission dynamic, we estimated its force of infection (β) and basic reproductive number (R(0)).
Within a middle size primary school in Iran, we actively followed students and detected flu-like syndrome among students and their families in the first three months of academic year; October through December 2009. We estimated the probability of disease transmission within families (β) fitting random effects Poisson regression model. Moreover, R(0) within the school was computed based on the number of detected cases.
In 452 students, 204 influenza-like syndromes were detected. The estimated β within families was 0.10; increasing one infectious member within each family was associated with 30% increase in this number. The estimated R(0) for the first month was 1.21 (95% C.I.: 0.99, 1.47); corresponding numbers for the first two and first three months were 1.28 (95% C.I.: 1.05, 1.54) and 1.32 (95% C.I.: 1.11, 1.59), respectively.
It seems that the dynamic transmission of H1N1 virus was more or less comparable with that in other seasonal species. Our findings showed that the virus mainly circulated among students within schools. In addition, it seems that the transmission rate within families was relatively high.
与其他国家类似，伊朗在2009年也面临甲型H1N1流感疫情。为了评估其传播动态，我们估算了其感染率（β）和基本再生数（R(0)）。
在伊朗一所中等规模的小学内，我们积极跟踪学生情况，并在学年的前三个月（2009年10月至12月）检测学生及其家人中类似流感的综合征。我们通过拟合随机效应泊松回归模型估算家庭内疾病传播的概率（β）。此外，根据检测到的病例数计算学校内的R(0)。
在452名学生中，检测到204例类似流感的综合征。家庭内估算的β为0.10；每个家庭中感染成员增加一名，该数字会增加30%。第一个月估算的R(0)为1.21（95%置信区间：0.99，1.47）；前两个月和前三个月对应的数字分别为1.28（95%置信区间：1.05，1.54）和1.32（95%置信区间：1.11，1.59）。
甲型H1N1病毒的动态传播似乎与其他季节性病毒的传播大致相当。我们的研究结果表明，该病毒主要在学校内的学生中传播。此外，家庭内的传播率似乎相对较高。
