Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
AIDS Behav. 2012 Oct;16(7):1746-52. doi: 10.1007/s10461-012-0254-6.
Recently, there has been debate about the role of concurrent partnerships in driving the transmission of HIV, particularly in Southern Africa, where HIV prevalence is up to 25 % in many heterosexual populations and where evidence from sexual behavior surveys also suggests high levels of male concurrency. While mathematical modeling studies have shown that concurrency has the potential to enhance the speed at which HIV spreads in a population, empirical studies up to now have failed to provide conclusive evidence supportive of these effects. Here we discuss some reasons for the apparent discrepancy between theoretical and empirical studies. We propose that studying the impact of concurrency on HIV transmission should be differentiated by taking more insight from social and behavioral studies on sexual partnerships into account. We also suggest that a more rigorous definition is needed for when a factor is considered a driving force for HIV epidemic spread. We illustrate this with a modeling example.
最近，关于同伴关系在推动艾滋病毒传播方面的作用一直存在争议，特别是在南非，那里许多异性恋人群中的艾滋病毒流行率高达 25%，性行为调查的证据也表明男性同时拥有多个性伴侣的情况很普遍。虽然数学模型研究表明，同时拥有多个性伴侣有可能加速艾滋病毒在人群中的传播速度，但迄今为止的实证研究未能提供确凿的证据支持这些影响。在这里，我们讨论了理论研究和实证研究之间明显差异的一些原因。我们提出，应该从社会和性行为研究中对性伴侣关系有更深入的了解，来区分研究同伴关系对艾滋病毒传播的影响。我们还建议，当一个因素被认为是艾滋病毒流行传播的驱动力时，需要有一个更严格的定义。我们通过一个建模示例来说明这一点。
