Khanna Aditya S, Dimitrov Dobromir T, Goodreau Steven M
Department of Global Health, University of Washington. Box 359927, 325 Ninth Ave Seattle WA 98104, United States.
Math Biosci Eng. 2014 Oct;11(5):1065-90. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2014.11.1065.
Circular migrations are the periodic movement of individuals between multiple locations, observed in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Relationships between circular migrations and HIV are complex, entailing interactions between migration frequency, partnership structure, and exposure to acute HIV infection. Mathematical modeling is a useful tool for understanding these interactions. Two modeling classes have dominated the HIV epidemiology and policy literature for the last decade: one a form of compartmental models, the other network models. We construct models from each class, using ordinary differential equations and exponential random graph models, respectively. Our analysis suggests that projected HIV prevalence is highly sensitive to the choice of modeling framework. Assuming initial equal HIV prevalence across locations, compartmental models show no association between migration frequency and HIV prevalence or incidence, while network models show that migrations at frequencies shorter than the acute HIV period predict greater HIV incidence and prevalence compared to longer migration periods. These differences are statistically significant when network models are extended to incorporate a requirement for migrant men's multiple partnerships to occur in different locations. In settings with circular migrations, commonly-used forms of compartmental models appear to miss key components of HIV epidemiology stemming from interactions of relational and viral dynamics.
循环迁移是指个体在多个地点之间的周期性移动，在撒哈拉以南非洲的部分地区可以观察到这种现象。循环迁移与艾滋病毒之间的关系很复杂，涉及迁移频率、性伴结构以及急性艾滋病毒感染暴露之间的相互作用。数学建模是理解这些相互作用的有用工具。在过去十年中，有两类模型主导了艾滋病毒流行病学和政策文献：一类是 compartmental 模型的一种形式，另一类是网络模型。我们分别使用常微分方程和指数随机图模型构建了这两类模型。我们的分析表明，预测的艾滋病毒流行率对建模框架的选择高度敏感。假设各地初始艾滋病毒流行率相等，compartmental 模型显示迁移频率与艾滋病毒流行率或发病率之间没有关联，而网络模型显示，与较长迁移期相比，频率短于急性艾滋病毒感染期的迁移预测的艾滋病毒发病率和流行率更高。当网络模型扩展以纳入流动男性在不同地点建立多个性伴关系的要求时，这些差异具有统计学意义。在存在循环迁移的环境中，常用的 compartmental 模型形式似乎忽略了由关系动态和病毒动态相互作用产生的艾滋病毒流行病学关键组成部分。
