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绘制世界经济结构图谱。

Mapping the structure of the world economy.

机构信息

Centre for Integrated Sustainability Analysis, School of Physics A28, The University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia.

出版信息

Environ Sci Technol. 2012 Aug 7;46(15):8374-81. doi: 10.1021/es300171x. Epub 2012 Jul 13.

Abstract

We have developed a new series of environmentally extended multi-region input-output (MRIO) tables with applications in carbon, water, and ecological footprinting, and Life-Cycle Assessment, as well as trend and key driver analyses. Such applications have recently been at the forefront of global policy debates, such as about assigning responsibility for emissions embodied in internationally traded products. The new time series was constructed using advanced parallelized supercomputing resources, and significantly advances the previous state of art because of four innovations. First, it is available as a continuous 20-year time series of MRIO tables. Second, it distinguishes 187 individual countries comprising more than 15,000 industry sectors, and hence offers unsurpassed detail. Third, it provides information just 1-3 years delayed therefore significantly improving timeliness. Fourth, it presents MRIO elements with accompanying standard deviations in order to allow users to understand the reliability of data. These advances will lead to material improvements in the capability of applications that rely on input-output tables. The timeliness of information means that analyses are more relevant to current policy questions. The continuity of the time series enables the robust identification of key trends and drivers of global environmental change. The high country and sector detail drastically improves the resolution of Life-Cycle Assessments. Finally, the availability of information on uncertainty allows policy-makers to quantitatively judge the level of confidence that can be placed in the results of analyses.

摘要

我们开发了一系列新的环境扩展多区域投入产出(MRIO)表,可应用于碳、水和生态足迹以及生命周期评估,以及趋势和关键驱动因素分析。此类应用最近一直处于全球政策辩论的前沿,例如关于为国际贸易产品所包含的排放分配责任。新的时间序列是使用先进的并行超级计算资源构建的,由于四项创新,它大大推进了之前的艺术状态。首先,它可作为连续 20 年的 MRIO 表时间序列使用。其次,它区分了由 15000 多个行业部门组成的 187 个单独国家,因此提供了无与伦比的细节。第三,它提供了仅延迟 1-3 年的信息,因此显著提高了及时性。第四,它提供了带有伴随标准差的 MRIO 元素,以便用户能够了解数据的可靠性。这些进展将导致依赖投入产出表的应用程序的能力得到重大改善。信息的及时性意味着分析更能解决当前的政策问题。时间序列的连续性使我们能够稳健地识别全球环境变化的关键趋势和驱动因素。高国家和部门细节大大提高了生命周期评估的分辨率。最后,不确定性信息的可用性使决策者能够定量判断对分析结果的置信度水平。

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