Shan Yuli, Tian Kailan, Li Ruoqi, Guan Yuru, Ou Jiamin, Guan Dabo, Hubacek Klaus
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK.
Birmingham Institute for Sustainability and Climate Action (BISCA), University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK.
Nat Commun. 2025 Sep 3;16(1):8184. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-63383-5.
Methane has been identified as the second-largest contributor to climate change, accounting for approximately 30% of global warming. Countries have established targets and are implementing various measures to curb methane emissions. However, our understanding of the trends in methane emissions and their drivers remains limited, particularly from a consumption perspective (i.e. accounting for all emissions along the entire global supply chain). This study investigates the most recent dynamics of methane emissions across 120 sectors from both production and consumption viewpoints in 164 countries. It also discusses the status of decoupling of production- and consumption-based methane emissions from economic growth. Our results indicate that there is no foreseeable slowdown in the momentum of global methane emissions growth. Only a few developed countries have managed to reduce both production- and consumption-based emissions while maintaining economic growth (i.e., strong decoupling) during the observed period (1990-2023). Global trade accounts for approximately 30% of global methane emissions, but major trade patterns are shifting from North-North and North-South to South-South countries, reflecting the increasing participating of developing countries in global supply chains. The study further reveals the changing drivers of global methane emissions from 1998 to 2023 in five-year intervals. It identifies that the reduction in emission coefficient (i.e., emissions per unit of output), driven by advancements in improved energy efficiency and cleaner production technologies, is the main determinant for reducing emissions over the observation period, partly offsetting the increasing effects from growth of final demand. Changes in demand structure have played a considerable role in the increase of emissions since 2008. This study enhances our understanding of the changes and drivers of methane emissions and supports countries in incorporating methane emissions into their climate mitigation strategies.
甲烷已被确认为气候变化的第二大促成因素，约占全球变暖的30%。各国已设定目标并正在实施各种措施来遏制甲烷排放。然而，我们对甲烷排放趋势及其驱动因素的了解仍然有限，特别是从消费角度来看（即考虑全球供应链全过程的所有排放）。本研究从生产和消费两个视角调查了164个国家120个行业甲烷排放的最新动态。它还讨论了基于生产和消费的甲烷排放与经济增长脱钩的状况。我们的结果表明，全球甲烷排放增长势头没有可预见的放缓。在观察期（1990 - 2023年）内，只有少数发达国家在保持经济增长的同时成功减少了基于生产和消费的排放（即强脱钩）。全球贸易约占全球甲烷排放的30%，但主要贸易模式正从北北和南北向转向南南国家，这反映了发展中国家在全球供应链中的参与度不断提高。该研究进一步揭示了1998年至2023年期间每隔五年全球甲烷排放驱动因素的变化。研究发现，能源效率提高和清洁生产技术进步推动的排放系数（即单位产出的排放量）下降是观察期内减排的主要决定因素，部分抵消了最终需求增长带来的增加影响。自2008年以来，需求结构变化在排放增加方面发挥了相当大的作用。本研究增进了我们对甲烷排放变化及其驱动因素的理解，并支持各国将甲烷排放纳入其气候缓解战略。
