Liu Jianzheng, Yao Fei, Chen Hongwen, Zhao Hongyan
School of Public Affairs, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, China.
Fujian Key Laboratory of Sensing and Computing for Smart Cities, Xiamen, Fujian, China.
Environ Health Perspect. 2025 Apr;133(3-4):47011. doi: 10.1289/EHP14550. Epub 2025 Apr 25.
Transboundary particulate matter (PM) with aerodynamic diameter () pollution is causing significant environmental conflicts among China, South Korea, and Japan. However, efforts to address these conflicts have been impeded by a lack of a comprehensive understanding of source-receptor relationships of pollution and associated health impacts among these countries.
We quantified the extent to which transboundary pollution and associated health impacts are mutual among the three countries in 2015 and 2017 using three metrics (population-weighted mean concentration, population exposure, and -related premature deaths) and two accounting perspectives (production and consumption).
We adopted an integrated interdisciplinary analysis framework that links an environmentally extended multiregional input-output model, a GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, a population exposure model, and an exposure-response model.
From a production perspective, China's contributions to population-weighted mean concentrations in South Korea and Japan were considerable, whereas the contributions of South Korea and Japan to China were negligible. However, the contributions from South Korea and Japan to population exposure and associated premature deaths in China were nonnegligible from both production and consumption perspectives. From a consumption perspective, the contributions of South Korea and Japan to -related premature deaths in China amounted to [95% confidence interval (CI): 6.36, 7.56] and (95% CI: 8.93, 10.64) thousand deaths in 2015, respectively, and (95% CI: 4.55, 5.49) and (95% CI: 7.02, 8.47) in 2017, respectively. These figures were generally larger than China's contributions to -related premature deaths in South Korea and Japan, which totaled (95% CI: 3.97, 5.28) and (95% CI: 2.78, 5.01) thousand deaths in 2015, respectively, and (95% CI: 3.75, 5.1) and (95% CI: 2.57, 4.79) in 2017, respectively.
Our findings show that mutual contributions of pollution and associated health impacts among the three countries varied considerably when different metrics and accounting perspectives were applied. A consumption perspective revealed narrower gaps in mutual contributions than a production perspective. Moreover, other countries outside Northeast Asia may have played a significant role in contributing to pollution and associated health impacts in Northeast Asia, suggesting that Northeast Asian countries should look beyond this region and collaborate with the rest of the world to jointly develop effective mitigation strategies. Our findings could help policymakers, scholars, and the public in China, South Korea, and Japan understand the intricacies involved in assigning environmental responsibilities and achieving environmental justice with respect to transboundary pollution. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14550.
空气动力学直径（ ）的跨界颗粒物（PM）污染正在引发中国、韩国和日本之间重大的环境冲突。然而，由于对这些国家之间PM污染的源 - 受体关系以及相关健康影响缺乏全面了解，解决这些冲突的努力受到了阻碍。
我们使用三个指标（人口加权平均 浓度、 人口暴露量和与 相关的过早死亡数）以及两个核算视角（生产和消费），对2015年和2017年这三个国家之间跨界 污染及其相关健康影响的相互程度进行了量化。
我们采用了一个综合的跨学科分析框架，该框架将环境扩展的多区域投入产出模型、GEOS - Chem化学传输模型、人口暴露模型和暴露 - 反应模型联系起来。
从生产角度来看，中国对韩国和日本人口加权平均 浓度的贡献相当大，而韩国和日本对中国的贡献可忽略不计。然而，从生产和消费两个角度来看，韩国和日本对中国 人口暴露量及相关过早死亡的贡献都不可忽略。从消费角度来看，2015年韩国和日本对中国与 相关过早死亡的贡献分别为 [95%置信区间（CI）：6.36，7.56] 和 （95% CI：8.93，10.64）千人死亡，2017年分别为 （95% CI：4.55，5.49）和 （95% CI：7.02，8.47）千人死亡。这些数字总体上大于中国对韩国和日本与 相关过早死亡的贡献，2015年中国的贡献分别总计为 （95% CI：3.97，5.28）和 （95% CI：2.78，5.01）千人死亡，2017年分别为 （95% CI：3.75，5.1）和 （95% CI：2.57，4.79）千人死亡。
我们的研究结果表明，当应用不同指标和核算视角时，这三个国家之间PM污染及其相关健康影响的相互贡献差异很大。消费视角显示相互贡献的差距比生产视角更窄。此外，东北亚以外的其他国家可能在促成东北亚的PM污染及其相关健康影响方面发挥了重要作用，这表明东北亚国家应超越该地区，与世界其他地区合作，共同制定有效的 减排策略。我们的研究结果有助于中国、韩国和日本的政策制定者、学者和公众理解在跨界 污染方面分配环境责任和实现环境正义所涉及的复杂性。https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14550
