Department of Geography, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY 14260, USA.
Trop Med Int Health. 2012 Sep;17(9):1076-85. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3156.2012.03040.x. Epub 2012 Jul 19.
To determine the temporal intervals at which spatial clustering of dengue hospitalisations occurs.
Space-time analysis of 262 people hospitalised and serologically confirmed with dengue virus infections in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand was performed. The cases were observed between 1 January 2009 and 6 May 2011. Spatial coordinates of each patient's home were captured using the Global Positioning System. A novel method based on the Knox test was used to determine the temporal intervals between cases at which spatial clustering occurred. These intervals are indicative of the length of time between successive illnesses in the chain of dengue virus transmission.
The strongest spatial clustering occurred at the 15-17-day interval. There was also significant spatial clustering over short intervals (2-5 days). The highest excess risk was observed within 200 m of a previous hospitalised case and significantly elevated risk persisted within this distance for 32-34 days.
Fifteen to seventeen days are the most likely serial interval between successive dengue illnesses. This novel method relies only on passively detected, hospitalised case data with household locations and provides a useful tool for understanding region-specific and outbreak-specific dengue virus transmission dynamics.
确定登革热住院患者空间聚集的时间间隔。
对泰国甘烹碧府 262 名经血清学确认为登革病毒感染住院的患者进行时空分析。病例观察时间为 2009 年 1 月 1 日至 2011 年 5 月 6 日。每位患者家庭住址的空间坐标均使用全球定位系统进行捕获。使用基于 Knox 检验的新方法来确定发生空间聚集的病例之间的时间间隔。这些间隔指示登革病毒传播链中连续发病之间的时间长度。
最强的空间聚集发生在 15-17 天的间隔。短时间（2-5 天）内也存在显著的空间聚集。在之前住院病例的 200 米范围内观察到最高的超额风险，并且在这个距离内，风险显著升高持续 32-34 天。
15-17 天是最有可能发生连续登革热的时间间隔。该新方法仅依赖于具有家庭住址的被动检测到的住院病例数据，为了解特定地区和爆发特定的登革热病毒传播动态提供了有用的工具。
