Felkner John S, Townsend Robert M
University of Chicago, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Q J Econ. 2011;126(4):2005-2061. doi: 10.1093/qje/qjr046.
A nation's economic geography can have an enormous impact on its development. In Thailand, we show that a high concentration of enterprise in an area predicts high subsequent growth in and around that area. We also find spatially contiguous convergence of enterprise with stagnant areas left behind. Exogenous physiographic conditions are correlated with enterprise location and growth. We fit a structural, micro-founded model of occupation transitions with fine-tuned geographic capabilities to village data and replicate these salient facts. Key elements of the model include costs, credit constraints on occupation choice, and spatially varying expansion of financial service providers.
一个国家的经济地理对其发展可能产生巨大影响。在泰国，我们发现某一地区企业的高度集中预示着该地区及周边地区随后会出现高速增长。我们还发现企业在空间上与落后的停滞地区存在趋同现象。外在的自然地理条件与企业的选址和增长相关。我们将一个具有微调地理能力的、基于微观基础的职业转换结构模型应用于村庄数据，并重现了这些显著事实。该模型的关键要素包括成本、职业选择方面的信贷约束以及金融服务提供商在空间上的差异化扩张。
