Kaboski Joseph P, Townsend Robert M
Am Econ J Appl Econ. 2012 Apr 1;4(2):98-133. doi: 10.1257/app.4.2.98.
This paper evaluates the short-term impact of Thailand's 'Million Baht Village Fund'program, among the largest scale government microfinance iniative in the world, using pre- and post-program panel data and quasi-experimental cross-village variation in credit-per-household. We find that the village funds have increased total short-term credit, consumption, agricultural investment, income growth (from business and labor), but decreased overall asset growth. We also find a positive impact on wages, an important general equilibrium effect. The findings are broadly consistent qualitatively with models of credit-constrained household behavior and models of intermediation and growth.
本文利用项目实施前后的面板数据以及各村每户信贷的准实验性交叉变化，评估了泰国“百万泰铢乡村基金”项目的短期影响，该项目是世界上规模最大的政府小额信贷项目之一。我们发现，乡村基金增加了短期信贷总额、消费、农业投资、（商业和劳动力方面的）收入增长，但降低了总体资产增长。我们还发现该项目对工资有积极影响，这是一个重要的一般均衡效应。这些研究结果在质量上与信贷约束家庭行为模型以及金融中介与增长模型大致一致。
