Department of Environment and Agriculture, School of Science, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
PLoS One. 2012;7(7):e42140. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0042140. Epub 2012 Jul 27.
Our aim was to model the current and future potential global distribution of Chloris truncata (windmill grass) based on the plant's biology, soil requirements and colonisation success. The growth response of C. truncata to constant temperatures and soil moisture levels were measured and estimated respectively, to develop parameters for a CLIMEX bioclimatic model of potential distribution. The native distribution in eastern Australia and naturalised distribution in Western Australia was also used to inform the model. Associations with soil types were assessed within the suitable bioclimatic region in Australia. The global projection of the model was tested against the distribution of soil types and the known successful and failed global introductions. The verified model was then projected to future conditions due to climate change. Optimal temperature for plant development was 28°C and the plant required 970 degree-days above a threshold of 10°C. Early collection records indicate that the species is native to Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. The plant has been introduced elsewhere in Australia and throughout the world as a wool contaminant and as a potential pasture species, but some of the recorded establishments have failed to persist. The CLIMEX model projected to the world reflected effectively both the successful and failed distributions. The inclusion of soil associations improved the explanation of the observed distribution in Australia, but did not improve the ability to determine the potential distribution elsewhere, due to lack of similarity of soil types between continents. The addition of a climate change projection showed decreased suitability for this species in Australia, but increased suitability for other parts of the world, including regions where the plant previously failed to establish.
我们的目的是基于植物生物学、土壤需求和定植成功率来构建旋花科麻属（windmill grass）当前和未来潜在的全球分布模型。分别测量和估计了旋花科麻属对恒定温度和土壤水分水平的生长响应，以开发潜在分布的 CLIMEX 生物气候模型的参数。还利用该植物在澳大利亚东部的原生分布和在西澳大利亚的归化分布来为模型提供信息。评估了与澳大利亚适宜生物气候区内的土壤类型的关联。模型的全球预测与土壤类型的分布以及已知的成功和失败的全球引种进行了对比。经过验证的模型随后被用于预测由于气候变化导致的未来条件。植物发育的最佳温度为 28°C，植物需要在阈值为 10°C 以上积累 970 个度日。早期的采集记录表明，该物种原产于昆士兰州、新南威尔士州和维多利亚州。该植物已作为羊毛污染物和潜在的牧场物种在澳大利亚各地和世界各地被引种，但一些记录的定植未能持续。CLIMEX 模型对全球的预测有效地反映了成功和失败的分布。包含土壤关联提高了对澳大利亚观察到的分布的解释能力，但由于各大洲土壤类型缺乏相似性，无法提高在其他地方确定潜在分布的能力。增加气候变化预测显示，该物种在澳大利亚的适宜性降低，但在世界其他地区的适宜性增加，包括该植物以前未能建立的地区。
