School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada.
Department of Geography, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada.
PLoS One. 2014 Jun 19;9(6):e100032. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0100032. eCollection 2014.
In many regions, large proportions of the naturalized and invasive non-native floras were originally introduced deliberately by humans. Pest risk assessments are now used in many jurisdictions to regulate the importation of species and usually include an estimation of the potential distribution in the import area. Two species of Asian grass (Miscanthus sacchariflorus and M. sinensis) that were originally introduced to North America as ornamental plants have since escaped cultivation. These species and their hybrid offspring are now receiving attention for large-scale production as biofuel crops in North America and elsewhere. We evaluated their potential global climate suitability for cultivation and potential invasion using the niche model CLIMEX and evaluated the models' sensitivity to the parameter values. We then compared the sensitivity of projections of future climatically suitable area under two climate models and two emissions scenarios. The models indicate that the species have been introduced to most of the potential global climatically suitable areas in the northern but not the southern hemisphere. The more narrowly distributed species (M. sacchariflorus) is more sensitive to changes in model parameters, which could have implications for modelling species of conservation concern. Climate projections indicate likely contractions in potential range in the south, but expansions in the north, particularly in introduced areas where biomass production trials are under way. Climate sensitivity analysis shows that projections differ more between the selected climate change models than between the selected emissions scenarios. Local-scale assessments are required to overlay suitable habitat with climate projections to estimate areas of cultivation potential and invasion risk.
在许多地区，大量归化和入侵的非本地植物群最初是由人类有意引入的。现在，许多司法管辖区都在使用害虫风险评估来监管物种的进口，通常包括对进口地区潜在分布的估计。两种亚洲草（荻和芒）最初被引入北美的观赏植物，现已逃脱了栽培。这些物种及其杂种后代现在正在北美的其他地区作为生物燃料作物受到大规模生产的关注。我们使用生态位模型 CLIMEX 评估了它们在全球范围内作为栽培作物的潜在气候适宜性和潜在入侵性，并评估了模型对参数值的敏感性。然后，我们比较了两种气候模型和两种排放情景下未来气候适宜面积预测的敏感性。模型表明，这些物种已经被引入到北半球大部分潜在的全球气候适宜地区，但没有引入到南半球。分布范围较窄的物种（荻）对模型参数的变化更为敏感，这可能对关注物种的建模产生影响。气候预测表明，潜在范围可能在南部收缩，但在北部扩张，特别是在正在进行生物量生产试验的引入地区。气候敏感性分析表明，所选气候变化模型之间的预测差异大于所选排放情景之间的预测差异。需要进行局部评估，将适宜栖息地与气候预测叠加，以估算潜在的种植面积和入侵风险。
