Department of Mathematics, IIT Delhi, India.
Accid Anal Prev. 2013 Jan;50:861-70. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2012.07.011. Epub 2012 Jul 31.
Pedestrians on Delhi roads are often exposed to high risks. This is because the basic needs of pedestrians are not recognized as a part of the urban transport infrastructure improvement projects in Delhi. Rather, an ever increasing number of cars and motorized two-wheelers encourage the construction of large numbers of flyovers/grade separators to facilitate signal free movement for motorized vehicles, exposing pedestrians to greater risk. This paper describes the statistical analysis of pedestrian risk taking behavior while crossing the road, before and after the construction of a grade separator at an intersection of Delhi. A significant number of pedestrians are willing to take risks in both before and after situations. The results indicate that absence of signals make pedestrians behave independently, leading to increased variability in their risk taking behavior. Variability in the speeds of all categories of vehicles has increased after the construction of grade separators. After the construction of the grade separator, the waiting time of pedestrians at the starting point of crossing has increased and the correlation between waiting times and gaps accepted by pedestrians show that after certain time of waiting, pedestrians become impatient and accepts smaller gap size to cross the road. A Logistic regression model is fitted by assuming that the probability of road crossing by pedestrians depends on the gap size (in s) between pedestrian and conflicting vehicles, sex, age, type of pedestrians (single or in a group) and type of conflicting vehicles. The results of Logistic regression explained that before the construction of the grade separator the probability of road crossing by the pedestrian depends on only the gap size parameter; however after the construction of the grade separator, other parameters become significant in determining pedestrian risk taking behavior.
德里道路上的行人经常面临高风险。这是因为行人的基本需求并未被视为德里城市交通基础设施改善项目的一部分。相反,越来越多的汽车和机动两轮车鼓励建造大量的立交桥/立体交叉口,以方便机动车无信号通行,使行人面临更大的风险。本文描述了在德里一个交叉口建造立体交叉口前后,行人在过马路时冒险行为的统计分析。大量行人在前后两种情况下都愿意冒险。结果表明,没有信号会使行人独立行动,导致他们冒险行为的可变性增加。所有车辆类别的速度变化在建造立体交叉口后增加。建造立体交叉口后,行人在开始穿越点的等待时间增加,并且行人接受的等待时间和间隙之间的相关性表明,在等待一定时间后,行人会变得不耐烦,并接受更小的间隙大小来穿越道路。通过假设行人穿越道路的概率取决于行人和冲突车辆之间的间隙大小(以秒为单位)、性别、年龄、行人类型(单人或成群)和冲突车辆类型,建立了一个逻辑回归模型。逻辑回归的结果表明,在建造立体交叉口之前,行人穿越道路的概率仅取决于间隙大小参数;然而,在建造立体交叉口之后,其他参数在确定行人冒险行为方面变得更加重要。