[Impact of demographic chance on pharmaceutical expenses in private health insurance--a scenario-based analysis].

Health Insurance costs in Germany have grown constantly over the last years. This increase of costs is not only observable in the total consideration but also in all single items. An outstanding growth rate exists in the field of pharmaceutical expenses. Detailed analyses of distribution and development of these costs, separated by age and indication groups, are currently only sporadically available and mostly focusing on the Statutory Health Insurance system in Germany. This research article is based on an initial data analysis and focuses on the question how pharmaceutical expenses in a German private health insurance company will develop until the year 2050, if the observed trend of the past years continues in the same way. This analysis focuses on different age groups. The objective is the demonstration of several scenarios, which illustrate the level of influence of different parameters (demographic changes, developments of prices for pharmaceuticals). Based on the cognition of certain effects measures for handling the growing challenge of financing the health system can be deduced. As a result, both demographic changes and price effects have an significant impact on the future development of per capita pharmaceutical expenses. Whereas older age groups will still cause the highest costs, the middle-aged people will show the highest growth rates. This strong cost increase is not sustainable for the German health insurance system. In addition to previous measures of a regulatory health policy (especially improved cost-benefit-assessments) the article shows new approaches for an intensified prevention and health promotion.