Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Grambling State University, Grambling, LA, USA.
J Biol Dyn. 2009 Jul;3(4):430-45. doi: 10.1080/17513750802495816.
In this paper, we introduce a model of malaria, a disease that involves a complex life cycle of parasites, requiring both human and mosquito hosts. The novelty of the model is the introduction of periodic coefficients into the system of one-dimensional equations, which account for the seasonal variations (wet and dry seasons) in the mosquito birth and death rates. We define a basic reproduction number R(0) that depends on the periodic coefficients and prove that if R(0)<1 then the disease becomes extinct, whereas if R(0)>1 then the disease is endemic and may even be periodic.
在本文中,我们介绍了一种疟疾模型,这种疾病涉及寄生虫的复杂生命周期,需要人类和蚊子这两种宿主。该模型的新颖之处在于将周期系数引入到一维方程组中,以解释蚊子出生率和死亡率的季节性变化(雨季和旱季)。我们定义了一个基本繁殖数 R(0),它取决于周期系数,并证明如果 R(0)<1,则疾病会灭绝,而如果 R(0)>1,则疾病会成为地方病,甚至可能是周期性的。