Division of Infectious Diseases, Korea University Medical Center, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
J Antimicrob Chemother. 2012 Dec;67(12):2963-9. doi: 10.1093/jac/dks303. Epub 2012 Aug 10.
The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a clinical prediction rule to screen patients at risk of vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) carriage at intensive care unit (ICU) admission in a hospital setting with low VRE prevalence.
This study was retrospectively conducted in the ICUs of a university-affiliated hospital in Korea, where active surveillance cultures for VRE had been run at ICU admission and weekly thereafter. In the derivation cohort from April 2008 to September 2010, risk factors for VRE carriage at ICU admission were determined and assigned weighted point values using a multivariate logistic regression model. In the validation cohort from October 2010 to March 2011, predictability of the prediction rule was evaluated.
Of a total of 4445 cultures taken from patients at ICU admission, 153 (3.4%) patients carried VRE. In the derivation cohort, independent risk factors (assigned points) for VRE carriage at ICU admission were ICU readmission during hospitalization (1 point), chronic obstructive lung disease (2 points), recent antibiotic treatment (3 points) and recent vancomycin use (2 points). In the validation cohort, the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the prediction rule, on the basis of risk scores ≥3 points, were 84.2%, 82.5%, 15.2% and 99.3%, respectively.
This clinical prediction rule for identifying VRE carriage at the time of ICU admission is expected to markedly reduce the screening volume (by 80.1%) in our healthcare facility. For use in clinical practice, the rule needs to be prospectively validated in other settings.
本研究旨在开发和验证一种临床预测规则,以筛选在低万古霉素耐药肠球菌(VRE)流行率的医院环境中入住重症监护病房(ICU)的患者,这些患者有 VRE 定植的风险。
本研究在韩国一所大学附属医院的 ICU 中进行回顾性研究,在 ICU 入住时和此后每周进行 VRE 主动监测培养。在 2008 年 4 月至 2010 年 9 月的推导队列中,使用多变量逻辑回归模型确定 ICU 入住时 VRE 定植的危险因素,并分配加权点值。在 2010 年 10 月至 2011 年 3 月的验证队列中,评估预测规则的可预测性。
在总共对 4445 名 ICU 入住患者进行的培养中,有 153 名(3.4%)患者携带 VRE。在推导队列中,ICU 住院期间再次入住(1 分)、慢性阻塞性肺疾病(2 分)、近期抗生素治疗(3 分)和近期万古霉素使用(2 分)是 ICU 入住时 VRE 定植的独立危险因素(分配分数)。在验证队列中,基于风险评分≥3 分,该预测规则的敏感性、特异性、阳性预测值和阴性预测值分别为 84.2%、82.5%、15.2%和 99.3%。
该 ICU 入住时识别 VRE 定植的临床预测规则有望显著减少我们医疗机构的筛查量(减少 80.1%)。为了在临床实践中使用,该规则需要在其他环境中进行前瞻性验证。