NIVEL, Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research, PO Box 1568, 3500 BN, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Hum Resour Health. 2012 Aug 13;10:21. doi: 10.1186/1478-4491-10-21.
In many countries, health-care labour markets are constantly being challenged by an alternation of shortage and oversupply. Avoiding these cyclic variations is a major challenge. In the Netherlands, a workforce planning model has been used in health care for ten years.
Since 1970, the Dutch government has explored different approaches to determine the inflow in medical schools. In 2000, a simulation model for health workforce planning was developed to estimate the required and available capacity of health professionals in the Netherlands. In this paper, this model is explained, using the Dutch general practitioners as an example. After the different steps in the model are clarified, it is shown how elements can be added to arrive at different versions of the model, or 'scenarios'. A comparison is made of the results of different scenarios for different years. In addition, the subsequent stakeholder decision-making process is considered.
Discussion of this paper shows that workforce planning in the Netherlands is a complex modelling task, which is sensitive to different developments influencing the balance between supply and demand. It seems plausible that workforce planning has resulted in a balance between supply and demand of general practitioners. Still, it remains important that the modelling process is accepted by the different stakeholders. Besides calculating the balance between supply and demand, there needs to be an agreement between the stakeholders to implement the advised training inflow.The Dutch simulation model was evaluated using six criteria to be met by models suitable for policy objectives. This model meets these criteria, as it is a comprehensive and parsimonious model that can include all relevant factors.
Over the last decade, health workforce planning in the Netherlands has become an accepted instrument for calculating the required supply of health professionals on a regular basis. One of the strengths of the Dutch model is that it can be used for different types of medical and allied health professionals. A weakness is that the model is not yet fully capable of including substitutions between different medical professions to plan from a skill-mix perspective. Several improvements remain possible.
在许多国家，医疗保健劳动力市场经常受到短缺和过剩的交替挑战。避免这些周期性变化是一个主要挑战。在荷兰，一种劳动力规划模型已经在医疗保健领域使用了十年。
自 1970 年以来，荷兰政府一直在探索不同的方法来确定医学院的入学人数。2000 年，开发了一种卫生人力规划模拟模型，以估计荷兰卫生专业人员的所需和可用能力。本文以荷兰全科医生为例解释了该模型。在阐明模型的不同步骤后，展示了如何添加元素以得出模型的不同版本或“方案”。比较了不同年份不同方案的结果。此外，还考虑了随后的利益相关者决策过程。
对本文的讨论表明，荷兰的劳动力规划是一项复杂的建模任务，对影响供求平衡的不同因素非常敏感。劳动力规划似乎导致了全科医生供求之间的平衡。然而，重要的是，不同的利益相关者都接受建模过程。除了计算供求平衡外，还需要利益相关者达成一致，以实施建议的培训流入。
荷兰的模拟模型使用适合政策目标的模型需要满足的六个标准进行了评估。该模型符合这些标准，因为它是一个全面且简洁的模型，可以包含所有相关因素。
在过去十年中，荷兰的卫生人力规划已成为定期计算卫生专业人员所需供应的可接受工具。荷兰模型的优势之一是它可用于不同类型的医疗和相关卫生专业人员。其弱点是该模型尚未完全能够包括不同医疗专业之间的替代关系，以从技能组合的角度进行规划。仍有几个改进的空间。
