Centre for Actuarial Research, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa.
Popul Stud (Camb). 2012 Nov;66(3):241-58. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2012.701660. Epub 2012 Aug 14.
We investigated birth-interval dynamics in 24 African countries using data from 76 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted since 1986. Controlling for selection bias in the birth-history data using the Brass-Juárez method and regression models produced almost identical results. Birth intervals have lengthened in every country examined. This analysis uncovered a distinctive and previously undocumented pattern of childbearing that is prevalent across sub-Saharan Africa. After allowing for time trends in birth-interval length, the lengthening of birth intervals in almost every country varies little by women's age or parity. Moreover, in several countries, birth intervals are now too long to be explicable by birth spacing contingent on the age of women's youngest child. Rather, women are postponing births for other reasons. These findings offer empirical support for the idea that the fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa is following a different pattern from that observed elsewhere.
我们利用自 1986 年以来开展的 76 次人口与健康调查的数据，研究了 24 个非洲国家的生育间隔动态。通过 Brass-Juárez 方法和回归模型控制生育史数据中的选择偏差，得到了几乎相同的结果。在每个被调查的国家，生育间隔都延长了。这一分析揭示了一种独特的、以前未被记录的生育模式，这种模式在撒哈拉以南非洲普遍存在。在考虑到生育间隔长度的时间趋势后，几乎每个国家的生育间隔延长情况都与妇女的年龄或产次差异不大。此外，在一些国家，生育间隔现在已经太长，不能用基于妇女最小孩子年龄的生育间隔来解释。相反，妇女推迟生育是出于其他原因。这些发现为这样一种观点提供了经验支持，即撒哈拉以南非洲的生育率转变遵循的模式与其他地区观察到的模式不同。
