Towriss Catriona A, Timæus Ian M
a University of Cape Town.
b London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
Popul Stud (Camb). 2018 Mar;72(1):75-90. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1370121. Epub 2017 Oct 10.
We describe a regression-based approach to the modelling of age-, order-, and duration-specific period fertility, using retrospective survey data. The approach produces results that are free of selection biases and can be used to study differential fertility. It is applied to Demographic and Health Survey data for Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe to investigate differential trends in fertility by education. Parity progression fell and the intervals following each birth lengthened between the 1970s and 2000s in all four countries. Fertility fell most among women with secondary education. In contrast to other world regions, postponement of successive births for extended periods accounted for much of the initial drop in fertility in these African countries. However, family size limitation by women with secondary education in Ethiopia and Kenya and longer birth spacing in Zimbabwe also played significant roles. Thus, birth control is being adopted in Eastern Africa in response to diverse changes in fertility preferences.
我们描述了一种基于回归的方法，用于利用回顾性调查数据对特定年龄、胎次和生育间隔的时期生育率进行建模。该方法产生的结果没有选择偏差，可用于研究生育差异。它被应用于埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚、坦桑尼亚和津巴布韦的人口与健康调查数据，以调查受教育程度不同导致的生育差异趋势。在20世纪70年代至21世纪初，这四个国家的胎次递进率下降，每次生育后的间隔时间延长。受过中等教育的女性生育率下降幅度最大。与世界其他地区不同，在这些非洲国家，长时间推迟连续生育在生育率最初下降中占了很大比例。然而，埃塞俄比亚和肯尼亚受过中等教育的女性对家庭规模的限制以及津巴布韦较长的生育间隔也起到了重要作用。因此，东非正在根据生育偏好的各种变化采用节育措施。
