Patient need at the heart of workforce planning: the use of supply and demand analysis in a large teaching hospital's acute medical unit.

Timely medical assessment is integral to the safety and quality of healthcare delivery in acute medicine. Medical staff are an expensive resource. This study aimed to develop a modelling system that facilitated efficient workforce planning according to patient need on the acute medical unit. A realistic 24-hour 'supply' of junior doctors was calculated by adjusting the theoretical numbers on the rota for leave allowances, natural breaks and other ward duties by a combination of direct observation of working practice and junior doctor interviews. 'Demand' was analysed using detailed admission data. Supply and demand were then integrated with data from a survey of the time spent on the process of clerking and assessment of medical admissions. A robust modelling system that predicted the number of unclerked patients was developed. The utility of the model was assessed by demonstrating the impact of a regulation-compliant redesign of the rota using existing staff and by predicting the most efficient use of an additional shift. This simple modelling system has the potential to enhance quality of care and efficiency by linking workforce planning to patient need.